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Forum polls: looking grim for OLP in the byelections

New polling done by Forum released today shows the OLP may only be winning 1 seat of the five byelections this August 1:

The Progressive Conservatives are well ahead in two longtime Liberal strongholds — one in Toronto and the other former premier Dalton McGuinty’s Ottawa riding, according to a Forum Research poll…According to the survey of 689 Etobicoke—Lakeshore residents, Holyday has 47 per cent, Toronto city councillor Peter Milczyn, 40 per cent, NDP’s P.C. Choo, 7 per cent, Green candidate Angela Salewsky, 5 per cent and others, 1 per cent.. In Ottawa South, where 631 people were surveyed, 48 per cent supported Young, Fraser had 34 per cent, the […]

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On phone polling vs internet panels

An interesting article from the CBC talking with the BC Liberals internal pollster, who predicted a Liberal Majority with 48 seats, and was off by only 2 (and by 2 more – they eneded up with 50, pending any recounts).

Why was his polling better then every other public domain pollster? He says it’s because he used traditional phone polling, not these internet panels:

Pantazopoulos says where his findings differ from the other pollsters is that he relies entirely on traditional telephone polling rather than online research. He says that approach allows him to access a wider swath of the electorate. “Every resident of the province with a phone line […]

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Dan Gardner nails it, I think, on why the Cons want to ditch the mandatory longform census

Dan’s article in the Ottawa Citizen deals mostly with the Conservative government’s hypocrisy on the Conservatives rationale for removing the mandatory longform census because it’s too intrusive on people’s privacy, while at the same time leaving other more intrusive measures in place. That segues into his theory as to why the Conservatives are doing this move to the longform, and I think he nails it:

Hard-core conservatives have long seen the census as the foundation of left-wing social engineering. And not without some justification. Programs like employment equity couldn’t function without census data. Stephen Harper would love to scrap such programs but he wouldn’t dare under current circumstances. And so, […]

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Some people appear to be a bit oversensitive.

I’ve noticed a few folks who appear to be a bit touchy to criticism. or just to simple questions. Here’s a couple of examples: (read more) […]

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The honeymoon for Ignatieff with the press, public continues.

I’ve seen a couple of indicators of that today. First the polling numbers for the parties:

The (Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey) poll also suggests Conservatives and Liberals are statistically tied, with 31 per cent and 33 per cent support respectively, well ahead of the NDP at 15 per cent, the Greens at 10 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois at 10 per cent.

Then the leadership numbers:

Ignatieff was the only national leader to score a net positive rating, with 43 per cent of respondents saying they had a favourable impression of him versus 32 per cent who had an unfavourable opinion. Harper was viewed favourably by 43 per cent […]

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Nanos holds the Cons. lead at 4.

Well, Nanos keep the Conservative lead at 4, but the regionals still show a lot of interesting things:

– The Liberals have jumped back into a 14 point lead over the Cons. in Atlantic Canada, after a dead head yesterday (Liberals +8, Cons. -6). This has been one of the most volatile regions for party support – at least in the Nanos polls.

– The NDP are now in a MOE tie in Quebec with the Liberals and Cons.

– The Liberals continue to hold a double digit lead in Ontario.

– The Conservatives have reached 50% in “the West”. I presume Albertans must be getting angry the rest of […]

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Decima drops the Cons. lead on the Liberals to 4 points today.

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I know Elizabeth May did well in the debates..

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KLRvu polling methodology update

Well, we’ve had quite a few of blogposts on the KLRvu pollsters and their polling numbers for Guelph throughout the blogosphere (including yours truly), and even one by David Akin looking at them. All this publicity no doubt thrills Allan Bruinooge, the head of the polling company, to no end.

I mentioned on Friday that I’d written the polling firm asking them of the 3396 households they polled in Guelph, how many of those refused to answer, hung up, etc. I received this response in email from Mr Bruinooge, and to be fair to him, I’ll quote his reply in full. He explains that the 3396 figure is the final […]

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On push-polling.

Well, I’m presuming a poll claiming to show a majority of Canadians opposed to Dr. Henry Morgentaler receiving the Order of Canada was done by the anti-abortion movement as explained over here at Birth Pangs (I prefer giving them the link traffic) because they were horrified at the fact that 2 legitimate pollsters did polling that showed a solid majority of Canadians (by over 2-1 numbers) approved of Dr. Henry Morgentaler receiving the Order of Canada.

When faced with polling done by those pollsters done with no axe to grind vs one that has been asked by a group with an obvious agenda, you always go with the established pollsters. […]

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