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No Olympic Bounce in new Ekos poll

The small lead for the Conservatives over the Liberals remains the same as in last week’s Ekos poll. In fact, both of the 2 major parties numbers marginally dropped.

With that, and with the fact 2 other polls have shown the same small lead/deadlock, I believe it’s not unfair in presuming/asserting that one can now say with some confidence that Ipsos-Reid was an outlier poll on the so-called “Conservative Olympic Bounce”, and/or that it was just showing its trend of polling Conservative support higher then the other major Canadian polling outfits (I believe Nanos is the last regular polling outfit that has yet to report out a poll post-Olympics).



Decima: Liberals/Cons in dead heat – ‘Libs making substantial inroads..’

Another poll out; this one a new one from Harris-Decima, which shows that Canadians are still up in arms over the prorogation of Parliament:

Over the last two weeks, the Liberals and Conservatives are now tied in voting intentions. Nationally, the Conservatives stand at 32%, the Liberals 32%, while the NDP is at 15%, the BQ 10% and the Greens 9%.

The specifics for the regions of Canada can be found at the linked-to PDF file above, but I found the summary from Allan Gregg on the poll really interesting. Here’s some really bad news for the Conservatives; the Liberals have reversed their declines in key voter demographics:

…”it is […]


Yet another poll release showing there are lots of anti-prorogue elitists in Canada

Ekos released a poll today, and again, the Conservatives and Liberals are in a Margin Of Error dead heat, as per Kady O’Malley:

Conservatives: 30.9 (-2.2) Liberals: 29.3 (+1.5) New Democrats: 15.3 (-0.7) Green: 11.9 (-1.6) Bloc Quebecois (in Quebec): 40.7 (+2.5) Other:Â 2.3 (-) Undecided: 14.0

Some analysis from Ms. O’Malley:

Any way you slice, dice, parse or dissect it, though, these numbers would suggest that this whole prorogation thing may not be working out quite as well as the prime minister might have hoped. Unless, of course, you heed those who are of the firm opinion that this has nothing to do with prorogation at all, since Canadians […]


A couple tales of the tape.

That title is NOT a reference to the suddenly-back-in-the-news Wafergate thing, although I suppose it could be (by the way, I think I like BCL’s term for it better; ‘cracker caper’). However, if you’re looking for tape on that and a recap of a story that proves it’s summertime around here, and that both media and politicians are looking for something to make news, read Jeff’s piece. (Plus, you can read how some Conservative supporting folks have gone way over the edge on this story and may end up losing a bit of money, dignity, or both. Then again, this is Lifesite news, so I’m not surprised).

No, my title […]


My new favourite (Canadian) electoral projection site

I’m not sure how I missed this site before today, but thanks to Steve for mentioning it over at his blog and alerting me to it.

Basically, the site does popular vote percentage and seat projections for the Canadian political parties based on the most recent 5 polls it enters into their database, but it also will do seat projections based on specific polls, such as the Ekos poll that was released today. In that specific example, their site projects these results:

This poll would result in the following seat totals:

Liberals – 125 Conservatives – 106 Bloc Quebecois – 50 New Democrats – 26 Greens – 1

I like […]


Magna 2 and Raitt-gate’s effect on polling.

I call this little staged presentation being done today Magna 2:

Prime Minister Stephen Harper is expected to present a rosy picture of his Conservative government’s handling of the recession Thursday in a slick made-for-TV presentation designed to forestall a quick summer election…The presentation will be moderated by Senator Mike Duffy, a former television journalist, and feature Harper, flanked by Human Resources Minister Diane Finley and Gary Goodyear, the local MP and Minister of State for Science. It will include a staged interview segment between Harper and Duffy.

I call it Magna 2 because it’s very eerily similar to what the Ontario Conservative government did in 2003 when it […]


The Nanos tracking poll tightens to 5 points.

The Sunday Nanos tracking poll shows another drop in Conservative support today – down from 11 on Friday, to 9 on Saturday to now just a lead of 5 points on the Liberals today. Are the new Liberal ads – 2 of them that are very tough on Harper – causing people to reconsider their support for Harper perhaps?

Results of today’s CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives leading in national support at 36%. Just 5 points behind are the Liberals at 31%, followed by the NDP at 20% and the Bloc Québécois and the Green Party tied at 7%. In Central Canada, the deadlock between the Conservatives and the […]


Nanos Poll: Gap narrows to 6 points, Liberals release new ad.

There are a lot of polls out there. You also have a lot of newspapers declaring this and that over their particular poll they’ve sponsored without mentioning a thing about other polls that may contradict their specific pollster’s narrative. See the doom and gloom predictions of the Toronto Star and Jim Travers in this past Saturday edition for evidence of that.

Well, Nanos has come out with their tracking poll today, and it shows a tightening of the race down to 6 points between the Liberals and the Cons, down from 8 points the past 2 days. Note also the big undecided vote in that poll – this election is […]


Bad (pre)election optics for Harper and the Conservatives.

Let’s list those bad optics as I see them:

– Two polls come out yesterday from Decima and the election guru, Nanos, showing the Liberals leading within the margin of error. Both breakdowns in regional vote would lead to a Liberal minority government if they were to translate to Election Day.

– You have the tainted meat scandal; “Deli-Gate”, as some are calling it. Up to 15 people possibly dead, with the Health Minister Tony Clement in Denver not bothering to return to address the crisis, all while cracking food jokes and meeting with American Big Oil over the Alberta tar-sands. Plus, a document revealed to show that the Conservatives […]


An encouraging poll result in Guelph, but the race is far from over.

Byelections normally don’t get polled, so there’s been some question as to how the races in these 3 byelections have been developing. I noted a column today from Thomas Walkom in the Star where he said Guelph was one of those ridings that theoretically, the Conservatives should be able to win because of its demographics and economic situation. So, this first poll I’ve seen on the Guelph byelection if accurate will be a bit of a downer for the Cons. in this riding. On the other hand, its very encouraging news for the Liberals and Frank Valeriote’s campaign in Guelph:

Frank Valeriote looks to become the next Member of Parliament […]

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