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Tough night for the Ontario Libs & Wynne

Last night, there were 2 byelections in Ontario, which were seen as a test of what the political winds are like in Ontario these days. The Ontario Liberals and Premier Kathleen Wynne was hoping to wrest away Thornhill from the PC’s, while Niagara Falls, in Tim Hudak’s backyard, it was seen as a test to see which opposition party would wrest it away from the OLP.

It was not a very good night for the OLP: in Thornhill, the PC candidate won comfortably – with vote totals only slightly down from the last general election, while in Niagara Falls, Liberal support cratered, but fled mostly to the NDP, which gained […]


Your 1st polls to 2nd guess Forum on – ONT byelections

Well, as expected, Forum is polling the 2 byelections just called in Ontario, and will be providing us fodder.. er.. numbers.. to look at. Here are their first “results”:

In Thornhill, where a successor to former Tory MPP Peter Shurman will be chosen, Tory candidate Gila Martow was at 44 per cent to 36 per cent for Liberal Sandra Yeung Racco.The NDP and Greens will select candidates this weekend so Forum polled using their 2011 election standard-bearers. Green Stephanie Duncan was at 10 per cent and New Democrat Cindy Hackelberg was at 7 per cent… In Niagara Falls, where the byelection is being held to find a replacement for retired […]


Byelections fallout: Will PC’s Tim Hudak still be PC leader in September?

It was an interesting night last night. The Ontario Liberals held onto 2 of their seats – in Scarborough and in Ottawa (despite gloomy polls – more on that later), while the NDP captured Windsor in a landslide (not surprising) and London-West (by a surprisingly comfortable margin). The Progressive Conservative Party meanwhile, had to console itself with winning Etobicoke, in a fairly tight battle.

I said yesterday that I’d be checking in today on the final results vs what the final polls from Forum and Campaign Research said, but I’ll hold off on that for now until I see what our favorite poll tracker Eric at says; he promised […]


Byelection Day in Ontario – grading the pollsters polls

Interested political observers and partisans will be looking at today’s by-elections here in Ontario to see what message the voters will be sending the Ontario Liberal government of Kathleen Wynne.

I’ll be interested in the results for more then one reason. We have had 2 polling companies – Forum, and Campaign Research – doing polling in some or all of the ridings, and I will be curious to see which of these 2 were closer to the mark (or if both are). Both of these pollsters used IVR (Interactive Voice Response) technology to get their polling results, so it will be a test of how their demographics and random […]


Forum polls: looking grim for OLP in the byelections

New polling done by Forum released today shows the OLP may only be winning 1 seat of the five byelections this August 1:

The Progressive Conservatives are well ahead in two longtime Liberal strongholds — one in Toronto and the other former premier Dalton McGuinty’s Ottawa riding, according to a Forum Research poll…According to the survey of 689 Etobicoke—Lakeshore residents, Holyday has 47 per cent, Toronto city councillor Peter Milczyn, 40 per cent, NDP’s P.C. Choo, 7 per cent, Green candidate Angela Salewsky, 5 per cent and others, 1 per cent.. In Ottawa South, where 631 people were surveyed, 48 per cent supported Young, Fraser had 34 per cent, the […]


Impressions of the Ontario By-elections.

My sense of how things are going, based on the brief polls I’ve seen, talking to people and just anecdotal “gut” feeling:

The OLP seems to be holding on a slight lead to the Toronto ridings (Scarborough and Etobicoke). They are probably ahead in Mcguinty’s old riding in Ottawa.

Windsor will go NDP unless every NDP voter down there decides not to bother showing up to the polls

The OLP is in a bit of trouble in London. I suspect the PC’s are in front here.

As always.. get out the vote will be important here. It always is, but even more-so in byelections, where voter turnout is primarily […]

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