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Going to be a long 4 years (for Conservative supporters)

You might have caught a while back that interim Conservative leader Rona Ambrose promised her party would use a “new tone” now that they were in opposition, implying the nasty personal smear attacks were a thing of the past.

Apparently, Conservative MP Candice Bergen didn’t get that memo when she posted this to Twitter last night.

They really are taking this election result hard. You can also see it in the Conservative supporters on social media. Take for example this CTV/Nanos poll today that showed a large majority – nearly 74% – of Canadians felt that Justin Trudeau had the qualities of a good leader. According to Conservatives, that poll […]


Election 42 kicks off. Nanos poll, Trudeau start bolsters LPC. Danielle Takacs shows why I support her.

The 42nd General Election writ was dropped yesterday, causing the 11 week campaign to officially begin.

It was interesting watching Harper try to pull off an Orwellian type response to why such a long campaign, claiming that it would somehow save money for the taxpayers – while it’s generally known that this extra long campaign will cost taxpayers an extra $125 million dollars. Â Also, ISIS, ISIS and more ISIS. We’re apparently supposed to be scared into voting for the CPC again. Â Also, the economy isn’t doing that great, we’re still going to run a deficit this year, Â according to the Parliamentary Budget Office, and we’re in a […]


A reprieve from Nanos for the Nervous Nellies on Liberal fortunes

There’s been more then a couple newspaper op-eds in the Star and Globe of late worrying about the Liberals and Justin Trudeau losing their mojo and declaring they need to do something to turn around sagging poll fortunes. Â They seem to have been basing that on their perception of one particular pollster – Ekos – who has been the only pollster really who has been doing a weekly look at Party and Party Leader numbers. (I’ll also note they seem to conveniently put that meme away when Ekos shows a Liberal turnaround – that pollster has had the CPC and LPC flipping between 1st and 2nd the past month […]


Wynne & OLP have (polling) momentum going into debate

… or so it would appear from the latest polling. Ekos had a 5 pt OLP lead yesterday, while Abacus had a 2 or 7 pt OLP lead (depending on their likely voter or all voter screen), and today Nanos finally enters the polling arena. The Nanos polling company has been promoting their Power Index stuff for awhile, so it takes some time to scroll down and find the actual poll results. but the OLP leads by 6.5% (and at 37.7%) when you do eventually find it.

What does that mean for tonight’s debate? It’s the last chance for the NDP’s Andrea Horwath to make an impression on voters – […]


More encouraging polls for the Liberals

Two polls come to us today – from two separate pollsters. The first I highlight comes from Forum Research, where voter preference and voter switching is looked at, and Justin Trudeau’s Liberals lead in the net-gain of votes:

The poll, conducted by Forum Research, says that one third of people who voted NDP in the past federal election would vote Liberal if an election were held today. In fact, 45 per cent of NDP voters in total would switch their votes to another party. Twenty-five per cent of Conservative voters would switch their vote – 17 per cent of them would change it to Liberal. “These results will propel the […]


2 sides of the polling analysis coin

Latest Nanos Poll numbers for the federal parties: LPC 36, CPC 30, NDP 25.

Nik Nanos commentary on this 2 pt gain for the Liberals over the CPC was that it was to do with the Senate scandal, not Justin’s admission he smoke marijuana:

Trudeau hasn’t seen a rise in popularity after focusing on marijuana, Nanos added. The Liberal leader was in the news recently for admitting he smoked marijuana a few years ago, after he was elected as an MP. The Liberal party is pushing for the legalization of marijuana. Trudeau’s pot admission and policy is “statistical puffery” because it drives interest but not votes, Nanos said.

An observation […]


An early Trudeau effect in polling?

Nanos is out with a new poll today. It shows the Liberals have made some large gains:

A Nanos Research survey reveals the Liberals have picked up almost six points over the Opposition New Democrats in the past month, and are edging the NDP for overall support for the first time since April 2012. The new poll shows support for the Conservatives remains steady at 33.3 per cent, with the Liberals at 30.1 per cent, the NDP at 27.9 per cent, the Bloc Québécois at 4.7 per cent, and the Green Party at 2.9 per cent.

Mr Nanos indicates that may be to do with the Liberal leadership race:

“Many […]


Brief thoughts on Bob Rae running or not running

There was a bit of a dustup online (amongst Liberals anyhow) over this story CBC broke yesterday:

Interim Liberal Leader Bob Rae will be permitted to run in his party’s leadership race and he is expected to enter the race, CBC News has learned…Party President Mike Crawley said a motion will be presented next Wednesday “to clarify how Rae could put himself forward as a candidate.”

The main debate raging seems to be over Bob breaking his word last year he would not put himself forward as a candidate for the permanent leader position (and you can find that quote of his very easily – at Macleans for one from […]


Harper and Cons reputation taking a bit of a beating – a year too late.

Two new polls out today – one from Forum Research in the Star shows the NDP ahead of the CPC by 3%.. the other by Nanos at the Globe shows the CPC ahead, but in an MOE dead heat.

Pollster are going to get looked at skeptically for a bit after the Alberta election results, but it’s not a shock to see the CPC drop after the Robo-Con vot suppression issue (still ongoing), the F35 scandal, and other various CPC misdeeds. My two thoughts are: it’s too bad the public didn’t realize this a year ago before voting for a majority government, but then again, perhaps it needed to be […]


The Ontario election (un)officially starts today (and it’s a horserace)

I’m fairly confident in saying that other then political junkies, not a lot of attention was paid to the Ontario election campaign by potential voters in Ontario. With Labour Day come and gone and a month left until Election Day, that officially changes.

Conveniently, we have a new provincial poll out from Nanos Research, conducted on behalf of CTV and the Globe and Mail, showing a tighter race. When rounded, it’s basically PC’s 35, Liberals 32, and NDP 23. Comparing to the previous Nanos poll, it appears that voters aren’t too enthralled yet. The PC’s and Liberals are both down between 5-7%, while the NDP made some gains. It […]

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