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Friday flipping

-Young Liberal Zach Paiken asserts that Canada is becoming more conservative – therefore, Liberals must follow that trend to get re-elected one day. I don’t see any polls or statistics in that story backing that claim up. Zach, if you’re not aware, has a bit of a reputation amongst some of us Liberals of being on the conservative side of the Liberal Party, so I’m not particularly surprised he’d try to claim Liberals need to move to the right, or be more “conservative”. He needs more then his assertions though to prove those claims. As an aside, our last 2 leaders in the LPC represented both wings of the LPC, […]


A stunner of a new Ontario poll, if accurate.


A newly released Harris-Decima poll shows Dalton McGuinty’s Ontario Liberals have an 11 point lead over Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives – the first time the governing party has bested it’s main rival in many months.The Ontario poll has the Liberals in the lead at 43 per cent, the PC’s with 31 per cent, the NDP at 21 and the Green Party trailing with five per cent. The 43 per cent support for the Liberals, if accurate, puts the party in majority government territory.

Even though I thought Tim Hudak’s abortion stuff would not go over well in mainstream Ontario, and the Liberals have fought back against the immigrant “foreigners” […]


‘The Jack effect’ scares the Conservatives

A new poll is out that shows the Conservatives and the NDP in a virtual tie – unsurprisingly linked to the recent death of Jack Layton:

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey pegs support for Layton’s NDP at 33 per cent — tied with the ruling Conservatives and well ahead of the Liberals at 21 per cent. That’s almost a three-point gain for the New Democrats since the May 2 election, which vaulted the party into official Opposition status for the first time in its 50-year history. The Tories are down almost seven points while the Liberals are up two. Harris-Decima chairman Allan Gregg said the NDP gain is most likely […]


The tale of polls

One pollster comes out declaring Harper has an Olympic-sized bounce; another comes out with a poll today that says it’s a national dead-heat (with the Olympics apparently having no effect), and a 3rd one just released says its numbers show stability from the last poll it did a week ago.

More polling to come I suspect, but as far as I’m concerned, we’re back to square one with voter intentions and preferences now that Parliament is about to be “un-prorogued” (my new word invention).


Decima: Liberals/Cons in dead heat – ‘Libs making substantial inroads..’

Another poll out; this one a new one from Harris-Decima, which shows that Canadians are still up in arms over the prorogation of Parliament:

Over the last two weeks, the Liberals and Conservatives are now tied in voting intentions. Nationally, the Conservatives stand at 32%, the Liberals 32%, while the NDP is at 15%, the BQ 10% and the Greens 9%.

The specifics for the regions of Canada can be found at the linked-to PDF file above, but I found the summary from Allan Gregg on the poll really interesting. Here’s some really bad news for the Conservatives; the Liberals have reversed their declines in key voter demographics:

…”it is […]


Decima dead heat

Okay, so I know the official name is Harris-Decima, but that would make the title a bit more awkward. The Conservatives must be feeling awkward too. A 4 point Conservative lead from last week’s Decima poll now is down to 1:

A new poll suggests that Canada’s swift reaction to the tragedy in Haiti has not boosted the government’s popularity among voters. Pollster Allan Gregg says it appears voters are still unsettled over Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s unpopular decision to prorogue Parliament and aren’t swayed by the popular effort to help Haiti. The latest survey by The Canadian Press Harris-Decima suggests the Tories and Liberals are in a statistical dead […]


Barking up the wrong tree and accidentally deliberating prematurely.

I see some of my NDP blogging colleagues are trying to act like the Blogging Tories normally do, and trying to cherry pick a single poll from a pollster that has been perceived as being on the high end of Conservative support when it tracks those polling numbers. They use this poll to declare the end of Michael Ignatieff/The Liberals etc. etc. etc.

Well now, as CalgaryGrit just said, Michael’s obviously had a good 20 hours, since he’s managed to turn an 11 point deficit into a 1 point lead:

A new poll suggests the Conservatives and Liberals remain locked in a dead heat amid rumblings of a possible fall […]

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