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What I’ll be watching for Election night (PPC – Rural ON/AB) #Elxn44

We’ve had a month of campaigning in the Federal Election 2021. I don’t need to recap everything that’s gone on, except to say it APPEARS (with large emphasis on that word) that the Conservatives seem to have stalled momentum with 3 days to go, and that the Liberals appear to have regained small leads or national ties that would likely ensure them a plurality of seats.

My interest on election night is going to be watching the People’s Party of Canada results – specifically in rural Ontario in the southwest. There has been large anti-lockdown/anti-mask sentiment/protests in these areas, opposition to vaccination mandates, and a vocal group of anti-vaxxers. They are not happy with either the Trudeau Liberals or the Doug Ford PC’s over these issues. There have been sizable rallies with the PPC in these areas as well. I am talking about ridings like Oxford, Haldimand-Norfolk, Elgin-Middlesex-London.

PPC strength is also said to be very high in rural Alberta – high teens according to some polls. This is another prime area for potential protest votes.

So my focus on election night is going to be if the PPC can get a sizable protest vote in these ridings (say – 10% or more). I am not sure if there would be enough of a protest vote to split the “conservative” vote and allow Liberal and/or NDP candidates to slip up the middle in any of these ridings, particularly Alberta. If there ARE large enough right-wing splits however, we could see a lot more Liberal seats then polls or seat projections are saying.

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