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Alberta politics suddenly got unpredictably whacky

So Jim Prentice was a virtual lock to win this election a couple of months ago… at least in the eyes of the pundits, particularly after Danielle Smith and half of her Wild Rose Party defected.

Suddenly, after a very unpopular budget.. things look extremely unpredictable:

An Alberta election that once looked like a Tory cakewalk is instead developing into a close three-way race — at least in the early going of the campaign, according to two new polls. A survey conducted by Mainstreet Technologies shows the Wildrose in the lead with 31 per cent support among decided voters, followed by the Progressive Conservatives at 27 per cent and the NDP at 26 per cent. The Liberals sit at 12 per cent support, and the Alberta Party is at three per cent. The poll surveyed 3,270 Albertans using interactive voice response (IVR) technology on April 7, the day Prentice called the election for May 5.

A ThinkHQ Public Affairs survey of 1,835 Alberta voters was released Wednesday, showing Wildrose in the lead with the support of 31 per cent of decided voters, followed by the NDP at 26 per cent, and the PCs at 25 per cent. The Liberals come in at 12 per cent support, and the Alberta Party at five per cent in the poll. The survey was conducted through an online panel between April 2 and 6.

So two polls using different polling technology with basically the same results. These are two relatively new pollsters, but in the case of Main Street, they’ve had some success with their polling versus actual results in the polls they’ve done before.. so these shouldn’t be discounted.  I’ll be interested to see what the more established pollsters find if/when they do their polling.

Either way, if these polls hold, or get better for the opposition parties,  It  would serve as good hubris for Prentice, and the WRP defectors to his party (tho half of them are’t running again anyhow.. so they may have got served their hubris).

My ultimate dream scenario: either/or of the Wildrose Party or the NDP win a plurality of seats.. with the other holding the balance of power 🙂 How about the the Alberta Liberal Party (who may be lucky to hold all of their 5 seats) holding the balance of power?. That would be fun times.




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