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Calm before the political storm

Twitter was all aflutter yesterday from some journalists saying several people had told them they had heard an election was going to be called today and the writ dropped for April.  That set everyone into panic mode or excited mode, depending on your point of view. So far as of this blogpost, it hasn’t occurred.  I’m on record and on a political bet with one of my Liberal colleagues that there won’t be a Spring Election. It may not be on October 19, but I don’t think it will be in the Spring, so we’ll see if I manage to win another political bet (and no, this time it isn’t with Jim Calder, my fellow Liberal blogger and Progressive Blogger moderator who I’ve won 3 bets and 3 free dinners from as a result – he actually agrees with me, which is slightly concerning for me).

Polls released of late show virtual ties or slight within margin of error leads for 1 party or another, which gives no incentive for Prime Minister Harper or his Conservatives to call something now… and hoping that some Canadians continue to stay scared of terror attacks (which is the main reason Harper has recovered some of his polling #’s) seems to be to be a bit of a gamble.

Related to that, I also some news reports where the Conservatives (or some Conservative strategists) are pondering proposing multiple TV debates (like several, as opposed to just the traditional 2), as they feel they’ll have a better chance of Justin Trudeau showing “inexperience” and highlighting Harper’s “strong” leadership skills (?? – what strong leadership skills, but I digress).  They obviously have a very high opinion of their guy and a very dismissive attitude of Mr. Trudeau.  I remember a boxing match  not too long ago where the same dismissive attitude was similarly held. Regardless, if they want to underestimate him, be my guest.   Quite honestly though, if you want to try to trap someone in a TV slip up, the less debates you have, the more effective strategy that would be – as there is a lot less opportunity  to recover from any slip ups on 2 debates then 5.

Personally,  I don’t mind more debates.. though I’d really like to have some different formats then just 3 leaders or more talking over each other.



3 comments to Calm before the political storm

  • Jordan

    No election as of yet. And thank goodness for that. I’m sick of all the election talk already and it hasn’t even started yet.

  • MoS

    Hi Scott. I contacted my go-to veteran Ottawa Tory insider. His reply: “lots of signs. good bet. polls are babas.” whatever “babas” means.

  • Purple Library Guy

    Two things on this. One, while Harper is not a stupid man, he isn’t by all accounts what you’d call spontaneous. As I understand it, in the last election he went to all his campaign stops giving the exact same speech, which he read out from teleprompter rather than rely on memory, and avoided all unscripted interactions. It worked, in that he was never off message. In a debate, I think his main strength is that it’ll be hard to move him off his talking points and he’s got enough chutzpah to simply answer what he wants to answer rather than addressing the actual topic of argument. But that’s a weakness as well.
    Two, sounds like the Harperites are forgetting that the leader of the opposition might also put in an appearance in these debates. And whatever party you’re from or support, you have to admit that Mulcair has a good grasp of his files and is well capable of going on the attack against Harper. Given Mulcair’s personality, and perceived personality, strong performances against Harper may not help him in the polls as much as you’d expect, but it would certainly hurt Harper.

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