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Contradictory polls

So we have a couple of polls out today: Ekos (who is behind a paywall) has the CPC suddenly leading by 3% 35-32 over the LPC due to a sudden “surge” in support for them in Quebec – 26% or so. Meanwhile, Leger (who is not behind a paywall) has the exact opposite result; the LPC up by 3 nationally, and the Conservatives down in the traditional teens where they’ve been for awhile (excepting Forum and Ekos.. and I’m a tad sceptical – particularly of Forum). We’ve had other polls come out the past week from Abacus and Nanos (released by mistake) that show neck and neck or slight leads for one or the other parties.

Has the security/terrorism/ISIS scare stuck with the voting electorate and given Harper a boost? Probably, tho the extent of that remains murky from contradictory polling results. However, I don’t think this is going to maintain him (unless the RCMP are going to be arresting suspects every other week from now until the writ is dropped). The faltering economy in particular will, I think, become more prominent, with the fact the eggs in one basket approach when it comes to oil has come back to bite both the Conservative government and Canada.

I’ll maintain, by the way, there isn’t going to be a Spring Election. I’m in the Autumn camp.


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