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Big new Ontario poll – deadlocked.

Very interesting – the Forum Research president apparently paid for this poll out of his own pocket. It’s a massive sample that shows a deadlocked Ontario legislature if it holds to election day:

A Forum Research survey of 40,750 people — one of the largest polling samples in Canadian political history — has the two parties separated by only 107 respondents, each holding 35 per cent. (14,064 said they will vote Liberal, while 13,957 selected the Conservatives.) Meanwhile, the New Democrats were at 23 per cent and the Green Party at 5 per cent.

For those wondering, this was an IVR poll – an interactive voice response one, which basically is automated calling to ask the questions, rather then using a real human person. This poll was big enough that Forum Research was able to predict seat numbers:

If those numbers were to be repeated on Oct. 6, the Liberals and Tories would be tied at 47 seats with the NDP only holding 13 seats in the 107-member Legislature. However, the results for at least 28 ridings are within the margin of error, so seat predictions are not nearly as reliable as the total sample.

That means a couple of things – it’s still anyone’s ball game as we get down to the Leaders debates, the polls continues to show that while Mcguinty may be fighting voter fatigue, Hudak has unnerved people about how he would govern if elected.


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