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The Hudak Conservatives are in trouble: polls

We had some people wondering if the Harris-Decima poll earlier last week showing an 11 point Liberal lead was an “outlier”. Well, we have 2 new polls out this evening in a matter of minutes within each other, and while the #’s are different, the momentum is confirmed by those polls for the Liberals.

First off, we have a poll from Ipsos-Reid;

According to a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted for Global News, Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals have 38 per cent support, compared to 37 per cent for Tim Hudak and the PC party. The New Democratic Party under Andrea Horwath trail with 24 per cent… the McGuinty campaign has the most momentum among decided voters since July, jumping seven points (31% to 38%) over the past two months. In the same time period, Hudak has dropped 5 points (42% to 37%) and Horwath has made a slight gain (22% to 24%).

Wright of Ipsos gamely tried to claim the PC’s still have the edge, but he isn’t trying very hard.

Next up, comes Nanos:

The poll shows the Liberals enjoying the support of 38.1 per cent of Ontarians, up six points from the 31.9 per cent who supported them in a similar poll taken 10 days earlier, shortly before the election was called. The Conservatives are holding steady at 34.7 per cent, compared to 35.4 per cent in the earlier poll, while the NDP under Andrea Horwath have improved from 22.8 to 24.3

What might have caused this sudden surge in Liberal support, and flattening or dropping of Conservative support? Well, specifically, maybe the “foreign workers/immigrants” attack line Hudak and the Conservatives are using on the Liberal tax credit for new Canadians (to help them get accredited faster and their skills put to the proper use to benefit all Ontarions) is working in a reverse wedge order – perhaps people aren’t liking that line of attack (trying to use dog-whistle tactics) or the hypocrisy behind it.

More specifically, maybe the more mainstream voters see of Tim Hudak and his Conservative Party (sans the “Progressive part), the less they like about it.

UPDATE: For a more graphical presentation of what the Nanos trendline looks like.. visit here


7 comments to The Hudak Conservatives are in trouble: polls

  • Lie to voters and go back on your promises not to raise health care taxes.

    Promise to discriminate against home-grown unemployed in favour of immigrant unemployed.

    Jack up our deficit and debt to unprecedented levels.

    Run Ontario to have-not status, something not even the NDP managed to do…

    Fool us once Mr. McGuinty, shame on you.
    Fool us twice, same on us.
    Fool us three times, WTF??

    • New Canadians aren’t immigrants, Squid. You need to readjust your talking points. The polls should tell you voters hate that type of wedge politics/appealing to the darker side of society..and find it dishonest too.

  • Insult new Canadians, promise to kill jobs, vow to destroy a future manufacturing hotspot in the world … Mr Hudak, voters ain’t stupid!

  • I didn’t think the man known as “Pointy Head” and “Premier Dad” had it in him for one last stand. No where near the charisma or the technical prowess of Frank McKenna in New Brunswick, but he seems to have found a niche. The Big Blackout in 2003, religious schools in 2007 — and of all issues, hiring immigrants in 2011! After all the ads to encourage foreign hires, the (P)C leader (wonder why they still call themselves that since they’re really just C) tried to cut a wedge and it backfired big time. Wonder if any of Hudak’s other Tea Party talking points will manage to stick between now and polling day.

  • sharonapple88

    The Ipos-Reid poll has the smaller margin of error, and it’s probably the more accurate of all the polls out there. Still, with the error factored in, it’s still within the Nanos poll. This is going to be a nail-biter.

  • You said 32 new polls. Where’s the other 30?

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