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The Orange Wave has multiple poll sightings – it’s real

Ekos’s updated poll from yesterday confirmed their surprise polling results over Easter:

For the fifth day in a row, we see a pretty stable voter landscape which would have been unimaginable at the outset of the campaign. The Conservative Party is at 33.9 points, which is down from the outset of the campaign and well short of a majority. Only six points back are the burgeoning NDP supporters at 27.9 while the Liberal Party is stuck at sub-Dion levels at 24.0...It is increasingly clear that the orange wave is a real phenomenon. What isn’t clear is how this will affect the final permutations of the campaign, let alone the post May 2nd political landscape of Canada.

Angus-Reid this AM (leaked last night) validated Ekos as not being an outlier:

A “seismic shift” among voters has vaulted the NDP to second place, just five points behind the Conservative front-runners while the Liberals are falling further behind, a new poll reveals. A new Angus Reid poll done in partnership with the Toronto Star and La Presse puts Stephen Harper’s Conservatives at 35 per cent, the NDP close behind at 30 per cent, the Liberals at 22 per cent, the Bloc Québécois at 7 per cent and the Green Party at 5 per cent.

It doesn’t appear to be a passing fancy either:

With less than a week to go in the campaign, Jack Layton is riding a wave of popular support for the NDP not seen in two decades, said Jaideep Mukerji, vice-president of Angus Reid Public Opinion. “What’s interesting about this shift is not only is the NDP gaining in popularity but that their vote seems to be solidifying,” he said.

And while Nanos this AM still has Conservative support higher then these 2, it too shows the NDP wave, as they vault into 2nd place nationally and “trending up” everywhere in Nanos.

This is going to be painful as a Liberal supporter to say, but it now seems apparent and obvious that the only way to stop a Harper majority is for Jack Layton’s Orange Wave to build and maintain thru E-day. Justin Trudeau’s frank assessment on SunTv was accurate; the Liberals campaign – despite it being run well and being a good campaign – has failed to resonate with voters. The NDP and Jack Layton’s campaign has.

I’m not saying that Liberals should give up – in fact, Ignatieff still is drawing large crowds where ever he goes, in spite of those polls – but if our message isn’t resonating, and progressives are turning to the NDP and Jack’s has, I’m okay with that – better that then a Harper majority.


12 comments to The Orange Wave has multiple poll sightings – it’s real

  • EFL

    Cliff,, just remember to be coherent on election night. I’ve promised to do so. If this is the tack you’re taking, it works the other way as well, if CPC majority results. Hope I’m wrong. It’s all about Ontario. Let’s hope Chrétien saves the day.

  • EFL you haven’t been keeping up with the news – or you are being deliberately disingenuous – Harper is at 35% and falling – his chances of a majority are over for this election and the fear card to try to keep people from voting for who they want to, simply isn’t going to work this time.

    In the future the Liberals will no longer be able to count on last minute NDP vote switches to carry you over the top – you’re going to have to sell yourselves purely on your party’s merits rather than depending on the fear card.

    God help you.

  • EFL

    Witness Harper and CPC playing up Jack and NDP to max.

  • EFL

    Unfortunately Scott, NDP splitting LPC vote in Ontario is going to boost CPC, deliver majority. QC doesn’t matter, Bloc-NDP switch irrelevant re. Harper. Danger always Ontario, and politically unaware who vote, the 10-20% who decide elections, will vote NDP in all those ridings where LPC #1 or #2 to CPC, and deliver CPC majority, if continues. It’s all about Ontario, always has been. So feel free to cheer for ABC anywhere in country but Ontario. In Ontario, NDP=CPC majority. That’s just the hard numbers. and the NDP insiders know it. and they are going to do it anyway. They are knowingly going to split vote, and, I suspect, deliver CPC majority. They hate the LPC more than the CPC, they hate the LPC more than they care about Cdns. If you know them, you know what they’re like.

    S. Dion: “My country before my party”. NDP: Not.

  • TofKW

    Not a fan of the NDP at all, but polling in this country showed the political stasis required a giant enema, and this certainly looks like it. Several major pollsters (all except Nanos & Oopsos – the later are useless anyhow) are now showing the CPC dropping and the NDP gaining on them. This is friggin’ unreal.

    The Hill Time’s Forum poll today has: CPC-34, NDP-31 LIB-22

    I for one welcome the socialist wave if it means Harper can’t get a majority; and with the CPC at 34-35% like Ekos, A-R and Forum are showing, he’s not getting one.

    Hopefully this results in Harper resigning & someone good like Bernard Lord leading a moderate CPC. Maybe they can even be a party of proper Tories again instead of the populist fratboys they are?

    Likewise the Libs have to determine just what their party is all about now, and grow from the roots up.

    And best …the Bloc hopefully is done!!! All 3 federalist parties listen – change party funding legislation somehow while they’re down. This is the chance to finish them off.

    Also, the NDP & their half-baked promises will now finally be under full scrutiny. Likewise so will their mixed messages across the country. Something tells me the orange wave won’t last.

  • Anything but Harper is the only thing we should be thinking at the moment. Stopping Harper is the first issue. Once that job is done, the NDP and the Liberals can think about their futures and the positive possibilities of the nation.

  • Gayle

    Ignatieff is not a disaster. People who speak with him and people who attend his rallies know the CPC ads are all bull. The problem is the ads have taken hold, and the LPC cannot counter them.

    The campaign has been good and Ignatieff has been solid. The fact that some people still persist in attacking him as though he has done them some personal wrong just shows how small minded some people can be.

  • I echo Cliff – A brave and classy statement Scott. Kudos.

    Thank you. I hope that I would show as much class if the positions were reversed.

  • Goran seriously, save the bile for someone who deserves it. A lot of Liberals, by no means all, actually ARE progressives first and Liberals second. Maybe the rank and file will take their party back from the backroom bozos after this. One way or another the NDP and the Liberals will be working with each other very soon, just not the way a lot of them probably expected.

    Be gracious to people who mostly mean well and may be looking for a new home soon.

  • Goran

    It is not like you guys weren’t told that Ignatieff was going to be an utter disaster. Now he is going to lead the Liberals to it’s worst defeat in history.

    For people asking to unite the left, why in hell would the NDP be interested in fusing their party to a corpse? The Liberal party is going the way of the Liberal party in the UK. It is done like dinner.

    Still think this election was worth it?

  • A brave and classy statement Scott. Kudos.

  • janfromthebruce

    Thank you Scot!

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