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Strange things happenning in BC’s Saanich-Gulf Islands?

No Nanos poll today -they come back tomorrow. So, the NDP have the luxury of trumpeting around the Ekos poll from yesterday around – at least, until Ekos does another rolling update to the poll. Seems like they were a bit worried they got a skewed poll (and who wouldn’t be when your forecast model is giving the NDP a comfortable 2nd place and 100 seats?) and are adding a rolling additional 1000 people to their poll to see if the NDP “surge’ holds.

In the meanwhile, I’m curious what Conservative internal polling is saying for the Saanich-Gulf Islands. This is of course where Green Party Elizabeth May is running, against incumbent Gary Lunn. Harper has visited that riding 3 times (the latest last week), and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty has put in a visit there as well.

You don’t throw that much artillery into 1 Conservative held riding unless you’re afraid you’re going to lose the riding. I think it’s safe to say that it isnt the Liberals or the NDP that the Conservatives are worried about. Is the polling for them there revealing a possible Green Party upset?


15 comments to Strange things happenning in BC’s Saanich-Gulf Islands?

  • bob

    HAHAHAHAHA saanich gulf islands are DOOMED!!!! have a fun 4 years suckers!!!! the first and last riding to ever vote in a green…(ever wonder why no other in riding in Canada ever elected a green?)…BECAUSE NO ONE ELSE IS THAT STUPID!!!

  • Canadian Citizen


    Good for you to think big picture and move beyond political labels! This is exactly what has to happen in the thirty or so swing ridings in this election, with Saanich Gulf Islands being one of them. Work together guys and we can make Canada a better place one vote at a time. Elizabeth is the obvious candidate to support against Lunn in SGI. In other ridings a vote for the Liberals or NDP is the obvious vote against the Conservative. Get it done guys!

  • wondering

    Green party polls show May at 45% in S-GI.

    Personally, as a NDP supporter in S-GI, I vote swapped with a Green friend in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca. I voted for May in the advance polls, and she voted for Garrison.

    I feel very guilty for not supporting Edith, because she is an excellent candidate. But I believe that the Greens deserve a voice, and I got to cast a vote for the NDP in a hotly contested riding NDP/Con riding via surrogate. I’m going to consider that a win-win.

  • Steve May

    Not that the NDP is thinking about this too much right now, with everything else going on, but I think that the statement that the NDP would prefer a Conservative win in SGI to a Green victory is quite valid. If I were Jack Layton, under no circumstances would I ever want to see an MP from a 4th national political party elected, as the long-term implications are serious. Given the NDP’s track record on environmental issues (especially in BC where the provincial party campaigned against the Liberal government’s sensible, if weak, tax on carbon), Greens in the House would mean a new go-to Party for those concerned about climate change. And since we can expect those numbers to increase over time as more impacts are felt, clearly the Greens will pose an increasing threat to the NDP (and all other parties, for that matter). In contrast, if May doesn’t win, the future of the Green Party becomes much less certain. That’s the politics of cynicism, though, and I hope NDP supporters, if not Mr. Layton himself, would see through all of that and elect May to get rid of Lunn.

  • Roll Tide

    Harper is there to try and help a friend who is in a unique race.
    You seem overly concerned about one conservative riding while the Liberals are about to be knocked down to third party status.

    Alamama Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban, when he coached the Miami Dolphins:

    “Coach [Nick] Saban had a saying, ‘We’re worried about mouse manure, when we have elephant [crap] all over the place,’

    Read more:

    The Liberals are in a panic mode in the war room (from a inside source).
    They are being blindsided by the left.
    Weather Liz May steels a seat from Harper right now is irrelevant.

  • Bill Jamieson

    How any-one can vote for the ex minister of the environment who fired the head of Atomic Energy of Canada after she shut down the Chalk River nuclear power plant for operating in an unsafe condition, especially after what’s happening in Japan is beyond me. And for the record mr good, the only reason Canada’s banks didn’t suffer the same melt down that the rest of the world did was because of the Liberals, not the Conservatives. If Mr Harper had had a majority, then our banking regulations would have been relaxed along with the rest of the world. I was one of those called by the dogwood society on the night before the election to support the NDP, who was on the ballot by had withdrawn. Who won the election?????


    I sure hope the Conservatives get a majority this time around,people need to wake up..They are good for the country,as Canada suffered less from the economic meltdown than any other country !! Meaning we still can be thankful that we still have our jobs !!

  • wondering

    @lemmy – Did you forget that in 2008 “someone” *cough*Lunn campaign*cough* phoned known NDP supporters and told them to disbelieve the news and that the NDP candidate was still running? The popular opinion is that move confused enough people that Lunn pulled out ahead of Penn.

    Blame that one on dirty campaign tactics.

  • lemmy

    So Jan, why didn’t Jack prove his high mindedness and endorse Briony last election, it would have done him no harm? Surely a Green/Red environmentalist would have been a better choice than letting 3665+ NPD supporters vote for a pulled Candidate and hand the election to Lunn.

    Maybe it really is a Liberal disaster and a conservative majority we need to force the Liberals into backing PR but neither the NDP nor the Liberals have played well with others when it comes to thwarting Harper.

  • Gayle

    Holy cow Jan. Talk about knee jerk replies.

    I happen to vote NDP. I also can see, in my city, how the NDP exploit strategic voting for Linda Duncan (my MP), and actively work against it in other ridings (Edmonton Centre). In fact, one of your own party members wrote a column for the Journal after the last election exposing that hypocrisy.

    I don’t take any issue with NDP policies. My issue with them is that they are working to decimate the LPC, NOT to replace Harper. It kind of bothers me.

  • janfromthebruce

    ah Gayle – wrong about your smearing of what Jack thinks! I’m sure Iggy hopes for a con to win too! Last I checked, the first place the Libs went this election was 1 NDP seat held in Quebec seat. Oh and Bobby Rae trots his butt out to Saskatoon to try to spoil a win there for the NDP because I guess the libs prefer a Con win. So spare me.

    Anyway, considering that our party has PP in our platform and Jack talked about that in the debate to get away from the FPTP would intellectually dispute your “small minded thoughts”. Oh, and then all those Liberal, I mean vote for Liberal strategic voting sites would also go by the way side, ensuring people actually got to make their “votes count” rather than hold their noses.

    But it looks like this election people have had enough of the same old, same old!

  • Gayle

    “So the question is do Libs and the NDP (who can’t beat Lunn in this election) fear 1 more conservative seat towards a majority more than the fist Green seat?”

    I think it is kind of obvious Layton would prefer a CPC seat to any other party except the NDP.

  • lemmy

    Yes Gayle, the Libs ran an ex green, Briony Penn who lost by about the same number of votes that the NDP cast for a candidate that dropped out of the election over a scandal. Quite unfortunate really, if you lose your candidate in a Conservative riding you really should state support your for the next best candidate and attempt to get the vote out for them.

    In this election Jacks new popularity could scuttle May’s chances.

    So the question is do Libs and the NDP (who can’t beat Lunn in this election) fear 1 more conservative seat towards a majority more than the fist Green seat?

    Will they do anything about it?

  • Gayle

    Isn’t that the riding where the LPC ran a prominent environmentalist last time around?

  • Volkov

    I would not have said it before but I can definitely see May pulling it off now; with the Liberals and NDP scratching each other’s eyes out, how much will they focus their own artillery on the Greens? The entire idea of the Conservatives winning SGI was that the Libs and Dips would stop May – if they can’t now….

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