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Orange Crush 2?

Last week, there was a hint of an Orange Crush (known as Jack Layton and the NDP) enveloping Quebec. If this poll from Ekos released tonight is accurate come election day, we may have the Orange Crush or Wave or whatever you wish to call it enveloping the rest of Canada:

..Jack Layton and his NDP party appear poised to reshape Canada’s political landscape. With all the necessary provisos and caveats about weekends and how things can still change, we are reporting the results of over 3,000 cases collected from Friday to Sunday which suggest an astonishing shift in the voter landscape from the outset of this campaign. While the Conservatives are still hanging on to a fairly stable (if somewhat diminished) 33.7% front runner position, the NDP wave which has continued in Quebec is now gaining a strong foothold throughout English Canada. The NDP stands at 28.0 points nationally and they are seeing important gains in virtually all parts of the country. Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals are stuck at 23.7 points but are still in the game in Ontario.

And what would the result be seat wise, if this poll was correct and it held on Election Day? The unthinkable at the start of this campaign:

With the current splits, these levels of support would produce 131 Conservative seats but the NDP would have 100 seats while the Liberals would hold 62. Together, the NDP and Liberal Party would have a majority and 31 more seats than the Conservatives, as well as nearly 20 more points in popular vote.

Possible result – if the Cons brought forth a budget unpalatable to the opposition parties? A Jack Layton government – either minority or (cough) coalition, though with the Liberals and Ignatieff publicly on record against a coalition government (though admittedly, he was envisioning it/rejecting it as him being the 2nd place party, not the other way around), it would have to be either an NDP minority government, or Ignatieff would have to resign to make way for another leader more receptive to that possibility.

We need to be cautious; this is the only poll released today that shows a) the NDP in 2nd place by this big a margin, b) the Conservatives vote support being that low, and c) the NDP being that close to the Conservatives. This could be one of those outlier polls. We need to see the trends in the last week for Ekos or other pollsters. It also could be the equivalent to Joe Namath, when everyone thought he was crazy as well (and believe me, I see some folks online shaking their heads in disbelief). I’ll note though that Ekos’s polls do correspond with the other pollsters today of a large and growing lead in Quebec.

My personal reaction if this were to happen? I am a Liberal, and I would be sad to see our party plummet to this result. There is still a week to go, and a lot can happen, and perhaps people will finally start responding to the good campaign and policies Ignatieff and the Liberals have set forth. But, I’m a progressive Liberal; I think a Harper majority would be a disaster to Canada. A majority government at the minimum must be stopped at all costs. If it takes the NDP to do it, and the Liberals fall to 3rd because of it, then so be it.

Other progressive Liberals appear to be saying the same thing. Harper’s coveted majority must be stopped at all costs, and if this is the route it’s done, it should be embraced, not feared. The Harper majority alternative is far worse.


15 comments to Orange Crush 2?

  • Roll Tide

    Very simple, bring out Bob Rae, front and center. He will explain, and remind how a NDP government made up of a caucus of individuals, way in over their heads, would bring failed socialist policies that would result in a mitigated economic disaster.

  • Linda

    Harper has involved Canada in two wars now. The cost to the tax payers is over $18 billion. The cost will be billions more. Harper has extended our troops stay, in Afghanistan. The fighter jets with no engines, are running into billions more. The billion dollar fake lake, was the most ridiculous waste of tax dollars.

    Harper gives the wealthiest corporations in the world, billions of out tax dollars. That motion was passed in the House of Commons. They are also given huge tax reductions. Harper just gave big business, another tax reduction, to come off Canadians paychecks.

    Harper ignores our Constitution. Our Civil Rights and Liberties, have been taken away from us. Democracy and Freedom, has been obliterated by the arrogant Harper. The Conservatives, stormed Guelph University to stop the students from voting. They even tried to steal the ballot boxes. This is a fascist, dictatorship government. Harper prorogued Parliament twice within a year. He was too stubborn and arrogant, to answer to the inferior oppositions questions.

    If Harper wins, Canada will be gone, owned by the wealthy institutions, that Harper works for.

  • ridenrain

    2000-Chretien 172
    2004-Martin 135
    2006-Martin 103
    2008- Dion 77

    Yeah.. It’s the NDP who are doing well, not the Liberals who are dropping.

  • Scott – I’m with you. If it is the NDP, so be it.

    A strong voice from the left is needed IF there is to be a center in this country. The Liberal Party will still be here – and we can rebuild in the confident knowledge that we have the time to do so. We will either have a Harper majority in a time of economic chaos (which I want no part of governing through) – chaos that is coming due to Harper/Flaherty’s pushing Canadians into debt (and led by the housing bubble bursting in the next few months). Harper will get all “common sense revolution” on our asses, and the voter backlash is going to be predictable. Our party needs to be ready for that time.

    In the meantime – organize, organize, organize. Fund-raise, fund-raise, fund-raise. Harper will give us plenty of reasons to do so.

    Keep in touch Scott – we will be talking after May 3rd – and PM me if you’re in Vancouver/area.

  • It’s probably not the right time to say this, but I think Bob Rae would have been a better challenger to Harper. Ignatieff has done his best this campaign, but he simply conveys a right-wing impression to voters. Rae is clearly center-left and would have made a better foil for Harper. Further, Rae would have been better at neutralizing the NDP vote.

  • An NDP surge simply makes sense when you consider how tired the electorate are of the BS. “Give the orange guy a try,” you know?

    But EKOS has been the odd pollster out.

    Then again, it’s a 3000 sample size, which is huge.

    Another 1000 are to be added tomorrow. EKOS is doing a huge rolling average:

    “We will be offering more interpretation and analysis tomorrow, as well as another 1,000 cases and a fresh 3-day roll of some 3,000 cases. Perhaps the country was in some form of mood disorder based on too much Easter chocolate, but it is hard to overstate the improbability of the current results given the received wisdom at the outset of this campaign. ”


  • JackCox

    He needs to include some Liberals in Cabinet, people Like Bob Rae, John McCallum as well as a few other who have been in government before need to help the NDP out, When Rae came in in 1990 he had nobody with any experience, so I would applaud Layton getting some Liberals to join him in the Cabinet to help make governing easier.

  • LMA

    I would welcome an NDP led Opposition, provided the Cons are kept to a minority. The NDP will fight to limit the expansion of the Tar Sands and have made a definite commitment to cut big oil tax breaks. I’m just not sure the Libs can be trusted to green Canada’s economy and that is what matters to me.

  • roger

    that’s a very respectable post — exactly the kind of message that progressive libs should be making. we’ll see what happens but if layton can prevent a harper majority, we will all be better off.

    also, have no fear of any misguided ndp policies if they would ever manage to win the confidence of the house and form a coalition government. layton’s ENTIRE career at the federal level has been to move the ndp to the center-left. i’m sure he would also reach out to progressive liberals with federal experience and include them in cabinet.

    if layton had been pm we also wouldn’t have wasted 20+ billion on the afghan war in kandahar. keep that in mind when we talk about fiscal responsibility.

    regardless, harper must be defeated or halted and if the ndp can do it then so be it.

  • Funny enough, though I am closer to the NDP than to the Liberals, this result could be very good for the Liberals. It would force them to soul search and determine what they really stand for. It could help them adjust to some of policies that have attracted people to the NDP which I think include a move away from corporate tax cuts (permanently, not just during economic troubles), improvements to the CPP, better labour policies, and a turn away from the Neo-Liberals policy attitudes that many of the Liberals have fallen into.

    I agree though, anything but a Harper majority. But if it means that some people are looking toward a more just tax system, and a more humane society, all the better. We will see. If we wake up on May 3rd to a Harper majority, god help us all.

  • Totally agree with your position… ABC – “Anybody but Conservative”.

  • Northern PoV

    I smell a rat!
    Harper’s numbers will consolidate and grow if Jack is seen as a potential PM.
    An NDP surge would more likely result in a Harper majority than the giddy scenarios suggested here.

    • Jon Pertwee

      Possibly, though I just came back from the Interior BC and other than a hilariously photoshopped billboard of Stockwell Day sans wrinkles it was a sea of orange. And I only got one lecture about the virtues of Harper. Most of the talk was about giving the NDP a chance.

      Strange days indeed

  • R

    The change from the last EKOS poll is a little less than 1% down for the Conservatives, 4% up for the NDP and about 1% down for the Liberals. So this fits in with what EKOS has been saying. Meanwhile, Ipsos has been consistent in claiming the Conservatives to be between 41%-44% throughout the campaign.

    • Jon Pertwee

      Ipsos continually polls pro-tory so I take them with a grain of salt. I know what my eyes were seeing.

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