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Barking up the wrong tree and accidentally deliberating prematurely.

I see some of my NDP blogging colleagues are trying to act like the Blogging Tories normally do, and trying to cherry pick a single poll from a pollster that has been perceived as being on the high end of Conservative support when it tracks those polling numbers. They use this poll to declare the end of Michael Ignatieff/The Liberals etc. etc. etc.

Well now, as CalgaryGrit just said, Michael’s obviously had a good 20 hours, since he’s managed to turn an 11 point deficit into a 1 point lead:

A new poll suggests the Conservatives and Liberals remain locked in a dead heat amid rumblings of a possible fall election.The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey put the parties in a statistical tie, with 32 per cent support for the Liberals and 31 per cent for the Tories. The NDP were at 16 per cent, the Greens at 11, and the Bloc Quebecois at nine. The numbers have barely budged throughout the summer, a period in which voters are typically disengaged.

..Or maybe this Ipsos poll is an outlier, while other pollsters are in consensus that this is a neck and neck race. Some might also say that the polls don’t really matter in the summertime anyhow.

Maybe you NDP guys should, you know.. wait for a few polls with similar numbers to come out before you bizarrely start declaring the end of the Liberal Party/Michael Ignatieff etc. Because right now, the Ipsos poll appears to be the outlier here.

Besides the neck and neck race, I’ll partisanly point out what also has been consistent is that the NDP hasnt moved out of the mid-teens in any of these polls in like..forever.

People in glass houses….

UPDATE: Good point from Jeff in the comments.

UPDATE 2: An NDP blogger actually making sense on the polling conundrum.


12 comments to Barking up the wrong tree and accidentally deliberating prematurely.

  • I don’t need a poll to trumpet the end of Iggy. Just look at what is happening.

  • Our union always used to use Ipsos-Reid. Who knew that they were Tory stooges?

    • @Dr.Dawg, Well, it doesn’t say much for them when even Harper Conservatives were sending out talking points to their MP’s yesterday, questioning the results of the polling:

      Even Harper Tories questioned it, sending out “talking points” to their MPs, noting the poll is not consistent with other polling. A Canadian Press Harris-Decima poll released yesterday afternoon put the two parties in a statistical tie, where they have been all summer

      It appears that overly-partisan NDP bloggers were all too eager to use something like this to go after the Liberals/Iggy without even considering the poll was an outlier.

  • If being neck-and-neck with the Harperites is now being bruited about as some kind of Liberal triumph, then all I can say is that the bar has slipped. After three years of disastrous Tory shenanigans, the best you folks can do (if you believe the poll that you like) is a dead heat?


    • @Dr.Dawg, That’s not the point, and you know it. You trumpeted an 11 point Conservative margin in a Conservative-friendly pollster’s results as the end of Liberalism in Canada.. or the very least, the end of Iggy. Now we have a poll a day later that completely blows that out of the water, and you’re now trying to change the goalposts of your blogpost.

      • @Scott Tribe, Scott… no offence, but now you’re doing the same thing that you’re accusing Dawg of doing, just in reverse. This is precisely why I don’t give a flying fart about these polls; they lead to these kind of back and forth pissing matches that don’t do anything to help move forward the issues and problems that will decide peoples views when the only poll that matters come, their vote.

  • Oh just shut up, Steve. Considering you’re the guy who writes thousand word articles about the demise of the NDP every time a poll shows them slumping and are wrong every time I wouldn’t talk about embarrassment.

  • “An NDP blogger actually making sense” Oh Scotty, that’s what I always do, even if you agree with it or not 😉

  • I’m embarrassed for anyone that actually ran with that Ipsos poll. Just makes you look so overtly silly.

    And yes, it’s even more hilarious to link to a poll that shows you at risk of losing official party status. Good grief guys.

  • If I were to query my NDP friends on that Ipsos poll that some of them seem keen to highlight, I’d ask them this: with Michael supposedly cratering, in free-fall, etc., why is the NDP still only at 14%? Why did none of that supposedly bleeding LPC vote go to the NDP (I think Ipsos had them up 1)?

    If I were an NDPer, I’d be a bit sheepish to highlight that poll, let alone play it up as bad for the LPC, because I wouldn’t be keen on what it says about my party either: even when the Liberals drop, the NDP can’t benefit.

    But that’s just me.

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