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Who do you believe: Jim Flaherty, or the TD Bank?

There’s a wee bit of a discrepancy between Flaherty’s forecast and the TD Bank’s:

The worsening recession will drive Ottawa $18-billion deeper into deficit over the next two years, a leading economist is predicting – an increase beyond existing government forecasts that appears set to push annual budget shortfalls into record territory. The Toronto-Dominion Bank’s calculations – using their updated economic forecasts – would see Canada’s federal debt swell by $81.5-billion over the next two years instead of by $63.5-billion as the Harper government forecasted seven weeks ago.

So do you believe the TD Bank, or do you believe this guy?

I think I’m more inclined to go with the TD Bank, thanks. And, it’s all the more reason that the independent Parliamentary Budget Office led by Kevin Page needs to be given adequate funding to allow it to continue to do independent reports on the government’s forecasts.

SLIGHTLY OFF-TOPIC UPDATE @ 12:33 pm: If you look behind Flaherty, you might notice Maclean’s own Kady O’Malley doing some live blogging for ITQ when Flaherty showed up this day.


6 comments to Who do you believe: Jim Flaherty, or the TD Bank?

  • Roll Tide

    “It is time that our PM and Flerthy start doing something to help the recession end instead of doing nothing”

    They put together a good, sensible stimulus budget the the Liberals supported.

    The rhetoric coming from Ignatieff is nothing but hot air.

    The stimulus plan in the budget, said Harper, “will help us to sustain economic activity … but it cannot fix the problem of the global financial system.”
    Thats reality, not partisan rhetoric, and you know it.

  • Marie

    I forgot to add, none of the two choices are an option as far as I’m concerned. I also made a mistake in the above post. It should have read(As for your PM and I am too embaressed to calling him Mine, you keep him.)

  • Marie

    RollTide, It is time that our PM and Flerthy start doing something to help the recession end instead of doing nothing and expecting the USA to do it for them.As foor your PM,9I can’t stand to call him mine} he is making up his rules as he goes along. I can’t wait for an election to see the likes of him

  • Roll Tide

    I agree with our PM, when he said last week in Brampton:

    “We will not turn the corner on this global recession until the American financial sector is fixed.”

    It is the truth, no matter what party is in power in Ottawa.
    It is hard reality, and you all know this.

  • Lord Kitchener's Own

    Your point is absolutely valid, but just to play Devil’s advocate, isn’t the Governor of the Bank of Canada saying something totally different today from what he said 7 weeks ago? Which is not to say that Flaherty’s (and the CPC’s) numbers aren’t wrong now, but it’s entirely plausible to me that they were pretty good seven weeks ago, and simply don’t hold up today.

    Of course, not that I expect the Tories to change their tune now just because circumstances have changed, but I do think it can at least be plausibly argued that things are shifting so quickly in the economy these days that comparing what the TD Bank says TODAY to what the Tories said seven weeks ago might not be an entirely fair comparison.

    With Mark Carney having to adjust assumptions he made just seven weeks or so ago, I can be a little more forgiving if the Tories need to do the same. “We were basing our assumptions on what the Governor of the Bank of Canada was predicting, and he just revised his prediction” seems an entirely reasonable defense for the CPC, to me.

  • JMR

    I agree with the TD bank and also support Kevin Page

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