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Final US Election Predictions.

Many months ago, I was on record as saying I thought Obama would win with 300+ electoral votes, a comfortable margin of victory (270 is required to win). I’m going to stick to that prediction, though I won’t be surprised to see it closer to 350 EV then 300. I’m not sure it will get as high as some of the electoral prediction sites on my logo sidebar are predicting however (353 is what a couple of them are predicting).

As for the Senate and the House. I’m predicting the Dems will end up with 58 seats. That counts socialist Bernie Sanders who caucuses with them; it does NOT count Joe Lieberman, who is not a Democrat anymore, either in name only or in reality. In the House of Reps, I’m predicting the Dems to pick up about 25 additional seats. If there’s a real Obama wave, it could be higher.

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3 comments to Final US Election Predictions.

  • Ted

    I agree with Scott on his predictions.
    Minnesota will be interesting, I think Coleman will hang on. Liddy Dole is toast in NC. Her ad last week was awful, faking her opponents voice.
    nb. A Obama victory is a win for Harper, think about it. The Liberals cannot use the American President as a bogeyman anymore.

  • My predictions about the nationals as well as some state referendums (and my thinking behind why) are going up on my blog just after midnight Eastern, but here’s an early précis of where I think the federal election is going:

    Obama 378 McCain 160 (not even close!)
    Senate: D 59 R 41
    House: D 256 R 179

  • I suspect that the margin will be much narrower than most are predicting, with McCain winning a couple states where he isn’t currently projecting. However, it will still be a comfortable victory for President Obama. The more interesting races to watch will be in the Senate, IMO.

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