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Events in Ontario will lead to Conservatives losing seats.

What events, the readers may ask? Well, specific events such as this in Welland for example:

Plant closure costs Welland 800 jobs

Ontario’s reeling manufacturing sector took another big hit yesterday as farm equipment giant Deere & Co. revealed the closing of its major plant in Welland and the elimination of about 800 jobs.

Some more general events:

Ontario’s opposition parties claim the province has lost more than 200,000 manufacturing jobs in the last four years. Union and company critics blasted the federal government again for ignoring the plight of the sector, which is a key engine of the Canadian economy.

I also think Finance Minister Jim Flaherty’s words will come back to haunt him:

Dion also got in a dig at Flaherty, saying that a key Conservative economic minister has “insulted the province of Ontario and invited the world not to invest there.”

That is why I am highly sceptical at the Strategic Council Poll released yesterday that claims not only do the Harper-bots lead by such a wide national margin, but they somehow managed to gain 10% in Ontario to lead all parties with 41% of the vote. The other polls released show significant Liberal leads in the province, which I think reflect the real story here.

With all the factors mentioned, plus others, I believe the Conservatives will not retain the 41 seats they hold in Ontario. I’m predicting a net loss of at least 10 seats for them.


2 comments to Events in Ontario will lead to Conservatives losing seats.

  • The polls that have Harper ahead are SC and Angus Reid. But they always have Harper ahead. The real question is what Nanos is saying, and he had the Liberals ahead.

    (But the polls are almost irrelevant right now, anyway. Going into an election could turn them upside down.)

  • Like you, Scott, I find the SCP suspect.
    Ontario has been bad-mouthed too many times by Flaherty for it to be ignored. And now, today, the Cons will be making an announcement to help the manufacturing industry in Ontario? A bit late isn’t it. But, hey, back to spending billions for vote-buying, right across the country..

    OT: Again, your site is back to taking forever to load. This has been the case for about a week now, perhaps a bit longer. Very frustrating – for me anyway.

unique visitors since the change to this site domain on Nov 12, 2008.