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It’s only one poll…

… and we must never jump to conclusions too soon on only one poll, but traditionally when Parliament is not sitting, the governing party’s poll fortunes rise. We have also seen the Cons. unleash the “tax on everything!” attack on the Liberal’s Green Shift, but in this particular poll’s results, it appears that neither scenario is in play:

The Canadian Press, Harris-Decima survey suggests the Liberals have pulled ahead in support in Ontario and Quebec, crucial battlegrounds that will determine the outcome of a nationwide vote. Nationally, Liberal support was up slightly to 33 per cent, statistically tied with the Tories at 32 per cent and followed by the NDP at 15 per cent and the Greens at six per cent. In Quebec, the Liberals were statistically tied with the Bloc Quebecois, at 30 per cent and 29 per cent respectively, followed by the Tories at 24 per cent, the Greens at 8 per cent and the NDP at 6 per cent. In Ontario, the Liberals enjoyed a healthy lead with 40 per cent, compared to the Tories with 31 per cent and the NDP and Greens with 14 per cent each.

Perhaps Canadians are also paying a bit more attention to Conservative shenanigans then some think – and not liking it. This poll was taken just as the Ethics Committee investigation into the Conservatives “in and out” electoral financing scheme was getting started up, and the polling was completed before all the delicious testimony of former Conservative candidates and silly Conservative stunts like what Doug Finley tried to pull on Monday. It will be interesting to see if this testimony has any more of a negative impact on Conservative polling numbers. It will also be interesting to see if the poll numbers hold any relevance for the three byelections and how voters vote in those ridings on Sept 8th.

You don’t need me to remind you what my views on pulling the plug on Harper and his government are, do you?

I will anyhow.


[email protected]:42 pm: I saw her blogpost earlier, but stuff like this that Danielle commented about at her blog probably doesn’t thrill Canadians much either.


2 comments to It’s only one poll…

  • JAWL

    Simply the fact that they are no longer fourth in Quebec is probably a good sign for the liberals.

  • There are a few small issues with this poll.

    1) I don’t see the regional error margins. I imagine it’s 6% or more 19/20 for Quebec and Ontario.

    2) Quebec isn’t broken down into Montreal and the RoQ. It kind of matters, if the Conservatives take 20 seats with 25% support in Quebec, which is very possible, the numbers are kind of moot.

    3) This is a minor quibble, and all reporters do this, 33% vs 32% isn’t a “statistical tie”, it’s a lead. Say the Liberals have a lead, it’s okay, I’ll get over it (especially when the other poll comes out next week that says, “Tories surge ahead” with the results reversed, 33-32.)

    it’s only a tie 2 standard deviations out. 1 standard deviation out, it’s a lead. It’s highly likely that it’s a real lead, but it’s tougher to say that with a high degree of certainty, but it does show a leading trend. People are confused enough about math as it is, they don’t need to be more confused than they already are.

    4) Most importantly, this poll was not done by Nik Nanos, so it means nothing! *giggles* <3 Nick

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