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Some reality for Clinton and her supporters

Delegates: Pledged Super Total Needed
Obama 1,660.5 315.5 1,976 49
Clinton 1,499.5 279.5 1,779 246
Remaining 86 201 287
(2,025 delegates needed for victory. Totals updated as of May 25, 11:13 pm)

I know there are still Clinton supporters, even up here, that are still claiming Clinton still has a shot at winning, or even claiming that the remaining Democratic super delegates may yet still change their mind, but the numbers don’t lie. Clinton’s run is nearing an end. When the last contests end, Obama will be tantalizingly within reach of the magic number. Anyone who thinks the remaining supers are going to suddenly move to Hillary, particularly with her latest Robert Kennedy gaffe, is dreaming.

UPDATE: Best response I’ve seen to Hilary’s rationalization of this and her subsequent apology:

It looks like many of Hillary Clinton’s apologists and several political pundits claim that her assassination remarks can be explained because of fatigue. Perhaps. In fact, it’s likely.
But won’t she be fatigued at 3 a.m. in the morning?

[email protected] 25, 11:13pm: 3 more super-delegates from Hawaii have declared for Obama. The number for Obama to officially declare victory draws closer.


12 comments to Some reality for Clinton and her supporters

  • “can turn their focus on McCain, the senator from Arizona is in big trouble.”

    I guess some people are in for a surprise. That’s why I’m glad I never fully endorsed anyone, it tends to cloud people’s judgement. This is America people, a Dem ALWAYS faces an uphill challenge. Getting cocky is a recipe for failure.

  • “Also, I don’t buy the “McCain is a maverick” stuff, or is unique.”

    Scott, you’re reading too much DailyKos again 😉 McCain is a maverick, and the proof is found in the GOP primaries. Why were the wingers going ballistic? If McCain were truly one of them, then you wouldn’t have seen such resistence. The fact of the matter, if not for the other candidates splitting the core Republicans, and McCain benefiting from independents, he would have lost the nomination. Every poll I’ve seen has McCain as the Dems “favorite” Republican, and this is because he has worked with progressives like Feingold, Kennedy and Edwards.

    National polls meaningless? At some point you have to consider them, and I would add, if you look at the electoral map, which does matter, it is mostly a “mirage”, this idea that Obama can win many new states. That’s why I posted that Politico piece, because it speaks to the fact that Obama has to win states the Dems normally carry, and pissing off the Clinton crowd, isn’t a good strategy now. If Obama doesn’t get the Clinton people behind him, if they erode to McCain in the slightest, he will lose in the fall.

    This looks to be a very close race, if Obama can consolidate his base, while McCain fails to energize some in his own, that will be the difference.

  • Lord Kitchener's Own

    Personally, as an Obama supporter, Florida and Michigan don’t really bother me anymore. Short of a seating of delegates from those two states that was UNCONSCIONABLY biased and undemocratic Clinton can’t really win even WITH Florida and Michigan seated.

    By my calculations (based on CNN’s numbers) the only way seating Florida and Michigan puts Clinton into a lead is if you give her ALL of the Michigan delegates, giving ZERO to Obama. In other words, ignore the fact that Clinton only got 55% of the vote in Michigan (40% of Michigan voters voted “uncommitted” rather than vote for Clinton) and ignore the fact that Obama’s name wasn’t even on the ballot in Michigan, and just give Clinton all the Michigan delegates uncontested. That, and the 50-33 split for Clinton in Florida (ignoring the fact that no one campaigned there) gives Clinton a whopping 8 delegate lead.

    If, however, you simply give Clinton 55% of Michigan delegates, and Obama still zero, and give Clinton the 50-33 split in the Florida delegates that the vote suggests, then Senator Clinton is still down by 63 delegates. That’s about the best possible scenario I can see coming out of the rules committee for Clinton, and it still has her down 63 delegates with Florida and Michigan counted. With that kind of a deficit, Clinton would need to win 73% of the remaining contested delegates just to come out of primary season TIED with Obama. 73%. She’d have to do better in all the remaining contests than she has in any of the contests to date, by far (well, OK, she got 70% in Arkansas, but that’s as close as she’s been to 70% all season).

    I just don’t see how Florida or Michigan make much difference at this point. Unless you’re going to give Clinton ALL of the delegates from a state where the race wasn’t even supposed to count and in which her main rival wasn’t even on the ballot, there’s no scenario for seating the Florida and Michigan delegates that even gets Clinton to within even 50 delegates of the win.

    The race is over, and I suspect even the Clinton camp knows that by now.

  • Mound of Sound

    McCain/Clinton or McCain/Obama polls are meaningless at best at this point. Once the Dems have their candidate and can turn their focus on McCain, the senator from Arizona is in big trouble. I think McCain realizes just how much trouble he’s in with his endless flip-flops on everything except continuing the Iraq war. The sole policy he has where he’s been consistent is the one that Americans don’t want to hear.

  • s.b.

    Scott if you want some reality, check out

    If Dems want the white house they will vote for HIllary at convention no matter what they have said in public.

    Over 800 votes are up for grabs right until they go into the ballot booth.

    The polls are clear. Obama doesnt win in Nov. Hillary does, by a mile.

  • Antonio:

    Many American political observers in the US say that she is outvoted on that commission, so I trust their judgement on that. And there will be no revote (book it, bank it) – if there is a compromise, it will be on splitting the delegations and assigning each candidate what they won.

    And that Obama quote you provided did not have Obama calling her a racist, Antonio.. nice try though.

  • I want to clarify what I meant when i said “If 90-10 is not positive discrimination…I dont know what to say anymore”

    I mean to say, before I am called a racist, that people, Bill Clinton included, have been called a racist for pointing that one group is voting 90-10 for one candidate.

    I challenge anybody to tell me that if white people were voting 90-10 for Hillary Clinton, what we would be hearing right now, if not calls of discrimination…

  • As for Michigan and Florida, the committee has 28 member and neither side has a majority of supporters, since a few remain neutral.

    I think they might propose a revote. There is almost 90 days until a convention. They only need 30-45 to organize a primary…

  • “Part of what Geraldine Ferraro is doing … is to participate in a kind of slice and dice politics that’s about race and about gender. … That’s what Americans are tired of.”

    That was Obama himself…saying she was using race to divide people.

    If 90-10 is not positive discrimination…I dont know what to say anymore

  • Steve:

    As I’ve said before, a national poll in the US is rather meaningless when it’s state polls that matter more due to their state electoral college setup. Also, I don’t buy the “McCain is a maverick” stuff, or is unique. We’ve already seen a hint of that from his having to let go half his advisory team for being lobbyists, after claiming all this time he hates lobbyists. WHen the Dems put their full guns on him, he will be exposed for what he is – a typical Republican politician branded with their failures who is trying to pretend what he isn’t. Also, I wouldn’t take everything the Politico says as Gospel, Steve.

    Antonio: If you’re referring to Michigan and Florida, there is no way Clinton is going to get those delegations seated with the numbers she wants the way she’s been trying to. She doesn’t have the support on the committee looking at that.

    Quite frankly, Ferraro deserved what she got to be called out for what she said. I didn’t see anyone officially in the Obama campaign call her a racist though – you seem to be equating Obama supporting bloggers to the “campaign”, and I think that’s being disingenuous.

  • At this point, Obama and his supporters should be doing everything to reach out to Clinton voters. The latest Newsweek poll has Obama leading Clinton by a full 8 points, but when you do head to heads with McCain, Clinton wins by 4, Obama is tied. If the end result of this process is disaffected Clinton voters moving to McCain, then Obama will be in big trouble come November.

    People keeping pointing to the GOP’s troubles, as indicative of what will happen in November, but McCain is unique and he doesn’t necessarily suffer under the Republican brand. Politico had an excellent overview of the race, and it demonstrates that Obama’s supposed “new” appeal doesn’t necessarily translate into electoral votes. Obama MUST consolidate Clinton voters behind him, otherwise McCain will be the winner, it’s really as simple as that. Clinton can’t win, but she has such broad support, there is nothing to be gained by kicking sand.

  • I will give you this Scott.

    If the magic number goes up next week…you may be singing a different tune.

    As for RFK, even his son comes out and says this is nothing new but the Obama campaign has been so deceitful this primary, first calling Bill Clinton a racist, then Geraldine Ferraro a racist, now saying “these remarks have no place in this campaign” implying Hillary wants Obama to be assassinated, sending the media into a frenzy, then Obama saying she didnt mean it.

    I will give you Obamaniacs a tip. If you expect to win the leaderhip of a party, and you say your opponent wants you assassinated, and call her husband a racist, or call your opponent a warmongering torture-supporting Bush supporter, good luck with “uniting the party”. Dont be surprised if people sit on their hands…

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