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All signs point to a Republican meltdown in November.

There was a special election held in Mississippi last night to fill a seat in Congress. This seat is one that is in deeply conservative territory; it voted for George Bush to be president by a margin of 2-1 in 2004.  In this particular campaign, the Republicans tried to tar the Democratic candidate here with being a Barack Obama supporter, and more importantly, played up Rev. Jeremiah Wright and his remarks and tried to use that against him.

The result? Not good – for the Republicans that is. They lost by an 8 point margin:

For Republicans, Davis’ defeat is viewed as a possible preview for a widespread GOP thrashing in November, and it shows that trying to link local Democrats in conservative districts to Sen. Barack Obama and his former pastor was not a winning strategy.

Now, some people seem to think that Obama will not be able to stand up to the Republican slime machine when it gets into gear, but recent polls show the Republicans face long odds at making that strategy work:

The party’s fundamental situation is terrible: Republicans are saddled with an enormously unpopular president, a war, a troubled economy and a Democratic opposition that’s being energized by important constituent groups.

An analysis of the recent ABC/Washington Post poll shows signs of the Republican’s being in deep trouble. Obama leads McCain in 3 of the 4 regions of the US and even is competitive with McCain in the South – a traditional Republican stronghold.  It also shows Dems are more trusted then Republicans to deal with the US’s problems – by wide margins. Another new poll out this morning shows Obama again beating McCain nationally.

Combine that with the fact that McCain will be under what I think will be a very effective attack – calling him “McSame” – as in the same as Bush and his failed policies and the Republicans in general, as well as exposing him to the public that he’s not as much of a “maverick” Republican as he’s tried to project, and I think you’re going to see a Republican bloodbath at the polls.

It is not a good year to be a Republican, and I can’t say I feel sorry for them. It can’t happen to a worse bunch (except perhaps Stephen Harper and his lot up here).


4 comments to All signs point to a Republican meltdown in November.

  • Ted

    Nationally the Republican brand name is taking a sh**kicking. Scott pointed out the Republican disaster in Miss. Memories of Dion’s bi-election disaster in Outremont, and Sask. However, polls show it still very tight in the Presidential race, as seen in the link above. The reason why is because McCain is seen as a maverick, separate from the Republican party. His name runs higher then the party.
    We may see a ’72 repeat, where a Liberal Republican Nixon beat a far left McGovern while Democrat’s increased seats in both houses. OR, we may see ’76. Carter edging out another Liberal Rockefeller Republican Gerald Ford, while gaining seats it both houses. It all depends on Obama. Will his radical friends (Wright, Ayers) hurt him, will his message of “hope” resonate? Who will his running mate be? If he is smart he should pick
    Sam Nunn,

    a Conservative Democrat who will make up for Obama’s foreign policy weakness.

    Obama also has electoral weakness among “Reagan Democrat’s”, as shown last night in WV, because of his perceived elitism.
    These votes are critical in swing states like Florida, Penn.,Ohio, and WV.

  • Mound of Sound

    Numbers don’t lie and there’s the problem for John McCain. At some point after Labour Day he’s going to have to explain where he’s going to find the soldiers to keep his wars going. He’s either going to have to consign the existing force into a state of military slavery or he’ll have to find replacements among a decidedly unwilling populace. That means bringing back the draft.

    McCain will try to say that young Americans will flock to the recruiting centres if they know he’s running the show but I doubt that Obama will have much trouble keeping him on point.

    Americans don’t care much for either of their wars without end and I doubt they’ll be willing to vote for the draft. If anything, forcing that issue would drive a wedge between McCain and his congressional candidates.

    What is he going to do if his own party has to renounce his platform?

  • I think it’s going to be a very tight race.

  • n top of prior by-elections in the suburbs of Chicago and then in Louisiana, the Democrats have set themselves up for what could be a revolution come November. And this win is a huge one in a district rated R+10 (i.e. likely voters vote Republican across the ballot lines, 10% above the national average).

    Whatever losses Obama may have had in Appalachia could more than be made up for in the Deep South (putting states like Louisiana, Mississippi and maybe even Texas) into play; that plus some more marginal states such as Colorado, Arizona and Nevada could create a whole new electoral map — one that neither Hillary Clinton nor Karl Rove want to contemplate, but should.

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