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Nanos poll: Some thoughts.

The first thought I have is to muse whether Chantal Hebert will talk about the new Nanos poll that shows a dead heat (and Liberal support rising, though the Cons. support rose as well), or will she simply ignore it like she did the Decima poll a week or so back, because it doesn’t fit in with her meme of the Liberals and Dion’s certain doom (and we can throw in that question to Jim Travers of the Star as well, since he’s been a close second since December 2006 of bashing the Liberals and Dion).

The next thing I will say is that certain Liberal bloggers who jumped on this poll as vindication for the abstaining policy the Liberals have been doing should be careful on trying to make a correlation with that strategy and these numbers. This poll was taken by Nanos after Flaherty’s bashing by Ontario over its budget (which Jim, who is no Liberal, points to as a probable reason for the steep decline in the Conservatives Ontario numbers), and since the Tom Lukiwski video surfaced. I think those 2 events are far more likely the reason we see Liberal numbers rising, and Green and NDP numbers falling back, then any great endorsement of the abstaining policy that the Liberal Nervous Nellies have instituted (Nik says the same thing at his blog, by the way).

Lastly, my thoughts on the poll itself – specifically certain aspects of the poll. The Liberals now have 50%+ polling support in Ontario and the Maritimes, and are tied with the Cons. in Quebec. That to me would be enough of a seat swing if the polls held over a general election to upend the Cons from power, despite their rise out West (Liberal numbers held steady out west – an area that we aren’t really strong in anyhow and wouldn’t lose that many seats if we did).

I will leave others to debate why NDP and Green support have dropped. Needless to say, this is a good poll for Liberals after all the travails and media bashing we’ve had the past few weeks. It also says to me that if our Liberal strategists needs to think hard about that rumoured June election they may finally want.

UPDATE: the 2 best quotes on these poll results; BigCityLib: “If the (Liberal) party abstains for another couple of months, they’ll be in Majority territory.”, and James Bowie, on Jason Cherniak’s persuasive powers. I don’t necessarily agree with either, but found both funny.

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13 comments to Nanos poll: Some thoughts.

  • Bigot is not the term to use in this instance Jeremy. Greg isn’t being intolerant, he just disagrees with your view.

    He views the Liberal strategy in a certain way that you don’t like, but that doesnt make him bigoted. I agree with him that you’re debasing the real meaning of the word.

  • Your use of bigot in this context Jeremy debases the meaning of the word. Pray, give us your alternate interpretation of a year’s worth of abstentions, walkouts and support for the government. That is the way you counter my “bigoted opinion”, Jeremy. Convince me that Dion is the greatest leader the Liberal Party has ever had. Dazzle me with his strategic vision and tactical brilliance. I await, trembling with anticipation.

  • Jeremy

    According to Wikipedia, a bigot is defined as:

    “a prejudiced person who is intolerant of opinions, lifestyles, or identities differing from his or her own, and bigotry is the corresponding ideology.”

    A person who is incapable of seeing two sides to an issue is a bigot.

    People who refuse to see any other possible interpretation to abstentions as valuable, are bigots.

    I can retract this statement if you’d like Scott, but that wouldn’t make it true.

  • Ted

    This poll shows excitement for Liberal fortunes. One wonders why they huff and puff over an immigration bill, them wimp and fold up like a cheap suitcase when the vote comes. They are only hurting themselves.

  • Jay

    I think these numbers are more reflective of how much people do not like the conservative brand as opposed to loving the liberal brand. This is combined with the general uselessness many feel with supporting the NDP and possibly unfamiliarity with the greens. They just feel safe with the liberals.

    What is the liberal plan anyways besides helping churches pay for security. Something that sickens me a little.

  • Jason

    “Question: For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences? (Committed Voters Only – First Choice)”

    Does anyone know how the second choice affects the numbers?

    Seems to me that most Conservative and NDP voters would have the Liberals as their second choice. If you are primarily a Conservative voter you would never in a million years vote for the NDP, that only leaves the Greens or the Libs. The same logic (reversed) could be applied to NDP voters.

  • Why would bad strategy by the Tories result in NDP losing votes to the Liberals?

    Because an anti-Harper feeling will generally see anti-Harper voters solidify around the most obvious alternative, ie. the only other party likely to form a government instead, the Liberals. It’s a polarizing effect.

    Anyway, on the numbers, given that we’re tied in spite of the abstention…let’s say strategy, imagine where our support might be if we’d been showing a little backbone…

  • Jeremy:

    I suggest you retract the “bigots” term… that hardly is the term to use to dispute Greg’s analysis with.

  • Jeremy

    Greg,

    It seems to me that there’s some sort of brain deficiency going on with you. I mean, look at the way you interpret the past few months in Parliament… Dion Cowering.

    Don’t you think there’s another possible interpretation?

    Only bigots are incapable of seeing two sides of the same issue.

  • … And I’d have to add that our core is becoming concentrated in a few areas (Ontario, Montreal, Atlantic, Winnipeg, Greater Van/Victoria), which isn’t a bad thing when it translates to more seats – just like it did for Reform/Alliance/Cons – winning the so-called “West” (leaving out major urban centers besides Calgary & Ed) resulted in almost 90 seats. Sometimes it is better to have your powerbase concentrated in areas with high seat numbers, rather than being a “mile wide and an inch deep”…

  • When people fear Conservative ideas/decisions they tend to go to the Liberals during elections, as they know the Liberals are the only ones who can defeat the Cons. It’s a typical pattern over the past few elections – with the NDP “cross-over” voters.

  • Why would bad strategy by the Tories result in NDP losing votes to the Liberals? I’m convinced that this has more to do with comfort with Liberal actions than anything else.

    Or, more likely, it has to do with inertia. The Liberals have done nothing, well less than nothing really, to be rewarded with good poll numbers. Jason thinks people are comfortable with Dion’s constant cowering. Does this ring true to anyone but Jason?

    On the other hand, Liberals are seen (at least in Ontario) as the “not Tory party big enough to maybe knock them off”. Every time the Tories do something stupid, which is almost daily, voters stampede to park their vote with the Liberals. I am convinced that Dion could be overthrown in a violent coup by Sheila Copps and the Liberals would still have good poll numbers in Ontario as long as Jim Flaherty is Minister of Finance.

  • Why would bad strategy by the Tories result in NDP losing votes to the Liberals? I’m convinced that this has more to do with comfort with Liberal actions than anything else.

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