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Speaking of polls, how about some US ones?

It is generally thought that Clinton needs to win by 20 points in PA to make a noticeable dent into Obama’s lead of delegates. Rasmussen’s polling today shows that Obama has pulled to within 10 of Clinton. Some of that could be attributed to Obama’s speech on race-relations last week, some of it could be blowback on Clinton for exaggerating her sniper fire story in Bosnia a couple of days ago. North Carolina also shows a big swing back to Obama in this poll, where he went from a one point lead back to a 21 point lead:

Obama leads Clinton 55-34 in the state. His gains were particularly strong in the Triangle, the media market where his major speech on the war last week in Fayetteville got the greatest amount of attention. Obama also pulled within a 47-40 margin of Clinton with white voters after trailing Clinton 56-30 last week, an indication that his speech on race in Philadelphia last week may have earned him some points.

May I again repeat that Clinton is for all intents and purposes done, particularly if Obama is indeed closing on her in Pa and continues to pull away in NC. She can’t win the nomination now without a super-delegate coup, which would split the party into DLC and DFA factions (which might not be a bad thing long term if it were to lead to the creation of a couple of centrist and liberal parties, but it would scupper the Dems for winning the presidency this year), and if she gains no real delegate advantage in PA, the continuation of her race is pointless, unless it’s designed to be a scorched earth policy to ensure it destroys Obama’s chances in the general presidential election.

UPDATE: One columnist says (even before all these new polls came out) Hillary’s chances of winning  are now down to 5%. Take that for what you will but the media narrative is definitely turning against her big time, and for what result? According to the columnist, this:

For three more months, Clinton is likely to hurt Obama even more against McCain, without hurting him against herself. And all this is happening so she can preserve that 5 percent chance.When you step back and think about it, she is amazing. She possesses the audacity of hopelessness.


11 comments to Speaking of polls, how about some US ones?

  • Hillary doesn’t see her now likely desperate bid for power as hopeless because she has bought into Obama’s message of hope!

  • Ted

     Mushroom: I have no problem with that.

  • mushroom


    To his credit, Scott has kicked out a few trolls.  The racist and homophobic ones that do not belong on Progressive Bloggers.

  • Ted

    Antonio:  that may or not be true, I have not read enough of Scotts blog. Having said that that is his right.
    What I like about his blog is that he gives us the right to respond without being censored.

    I understand the daily kos is now being boycotted by Hillary supporters.

  • scott is like the daily kos, he only reports polls which are relvant to his opinion…

  • mushroom


    Hey, you are the king of Progressive Bloggers here in Canada.  The closest we have to the Daily Kos 😉
    Keep up the good work. 

  • Ted

    I love American,British, Dutch and Canadian Politics.
    Mondale (Clinton supporter) said yesterday that he see’s a ‘super-sized’ political disaster if a nominee isn’t chosen before the Democratic National Convention.

  • Mushroom:

    With all due respect, I’ll blog about what interests me. If you don’t like it, you don’t have to read it 🙂

    You can blog about what you like at your own blog, if I’m too boring for you.

  • mushroom

    "split the party into DLC and DFA factions (which might not be a bad thing long term if it were to lead to the creation of a couple of centrist and liberal parties, but it would scupper the Dems for winning the presidency this year),"
    Nader, Nader, Nader… are you serious Scott?

    Presidential politics is different from parliamentary ones.  Stop focusing on US politics too much.  The Italian election is kind of fun, with proportional representation and all that.   

  • Ted

    Re. Scorched earth
    Drudge has linked a ABC story about Hillary contemplating the "Tonya Harding option".
    I do think this story is hyperbole, not to underestimate Hillary’s penchant for ruthlessness.

  • Ted

    Real clear has clinton up in Penn by around 16 pts, Obama up in NC by a dozon or so.
    As far as McCain-Obama, Hillary-McCain, it is way too early to even make any thing out of it, a few of the giddy Republicans ought to calm down.

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