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The moral of last night’s New Hampshire primary..

Never count out a Clinton:

Hillary Clinton confounded the pollsters, pundits – even her inner campaign circle – by roaring back in the New Hampshire Democratic primary last night, narrowly defeating Illinois Senator Barack Obama….With Clinton blunting the momentum that Obama had brought here with him from a convincing victory last week in Iowa, the race for the Democratic nomination now seems set for a long, intensive battle leading to Super Tuesday Feb. 5, when some 22 states will vote or hold caucuses.

Despite the crying and gnashing of teeth of certain Obama supporters last night, I think it’s a good thing that there’s going to be a long competition to see who the Democratic candidate is. I never have understood how simply by winning 2 states out of 50 that a candidate could be declared as the defacto presidential candidate.

Also, despite my not really having a favourite here, it gives me a certain satisfaction to see pollsters get their predictions wrong, and to see red-faced pundits who made predictions based on exit polls declaring Obama inevitably winning this one having to sputter on live TV about Clinton somehow winning despite what their polling said. I also sense a fair bit of the pundits on TV dislike the Clintons in general, which added to some of their discomfiture (I’m thinking specifically of Chris Matthews of NBC, but maybe that’s just my impression of him).

As for the Republicans, McCain’s victory throws that party’s convention even more widely open then the Democrats, and the possibility of them is even greater then the Democrats in having what is called a “brokered Convention” in the US. It’s basically what we Canadians seem to have all the time with our leadership conventions for the party leader – no clear majority for candidates and multiple ballots needed to declare a winner – but for some reason in the US in both parties this is very rare – most of the time, the conventions are rubber stamps for the victor.

For some reason, people I’ve been reading on the US blogs seem to fear that result, but I think it would make for great excitement and fun, rather then watching a boring coronation.


2 comments to The moral of last night’s New Hampshire primary..

  • Joseph

    Hey, Scott just saw your follow-up at Far and Wide.  Yeah, I saw his speech then heard Clinton’s as I was driving to pick up a friend from the airport.  So I didn’t get to hear a lot of commentary afterwards.  But, yeah, imagine the pundits probably did talk a bit about it afterwards as well.  Obama’s speech, that is.

  • Joseph

    Great Post, as normal.  I think Chris Matthews strikes a lot of people that way.  I think it’s just his personality.   Some conservatives don’t like him because they think he’s too liberal so he must be doing something right.I am glad there can actually be a race based on ideas now and not just "big mo" (as Bush Sr once described it).  My motto over the past week slowly became NO coronations and NO rock stars.  Good to see that may actually happen now.I commented on far and wide as well, but liked your observation about Obama’s speech being an adaptation of his victory speech turned into concession speech.  I thought the same thing.

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