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Despite Liberal internal warfare, Libs and Cons still in dead heat.

It really doesn’t say much for Harper and the Conservatives when despite all that’s gone on the past month in the Liberal Party – not much of it good – they’re still in a statistical dead heat with the Liberals:

The Conservative 33-31 per cent national lead in the latest Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey falls within the margin of error. The NDP is at 16 per cent and the Green party is at 10. The Liberals actually lead the Tories in the three largest provinces, throughout Atlantic Canada, and among women and younger voters…In Ontario, the Liberals led the Tories 38-33, while they were ahead 33-29 in B.C., and 41-29 in Atlantic Canada.

Memo to Liberal Party: These are dead-heat poll results despite all the internal bickering and infighting going on. Harper and the CPC have failed to resonate with Canadians, despite their best efforts to do so. If some people could get their act together in the LPC, we might actually grab a lead in these polls. Hopefully, the impending new additions to the Dion staff that were mentioned yesterday will go a long way towards that.

UPDATE: And that’s why, with these poll #’s, I don’t disagree with Steve that forcing an election is bad as one thinks. I think we look weaker by “disagreeing” with a Throne Speech and doing mass abstains, thus allowing it to pass, then by voting it down with the rest of the opposition on principle, and defeating the government. The poll #’s are not that bad – in fact, they’re pretty darn good, with what’s gone on. If we had some unity going into a campaign, I think we’d do far better then our partisan Conservative bloggers and even some Liberal bloggers would think. I believe time is on Harper’s side, and I repeat that trying to take him down on next Spring’s Budget gives him the advantage over bringing the government down over this Autumn’s Throne Speech.


10 comments to Despite Liberal internal warfare, Libs and Cons still in dead heat.

  • Gayle

    If all he wants to do is govern, then how do you explain the fact that he killed a bunch of bills when he prorogued parliament? He complains about not getting his crime bills passed (though the only reason it took so long was because of his refusal to pass his own bills), and then he kills them as soon as they do pass.

    Wow – he is REALLY concerned about the welfare of Canadians…or at least of his party.

  • ALW

    Well, Harper just wants to govern. So he’s framed it this way: either let me do it, or we’ll have an election so I can try and win enough seats so I can do it. There’s no contradiction there. And he obviously feels confident enough that he has good odds of coming out of either scenario better off than he is now.
    If most people aren’t paying attention to what is going on in Ottawa, then I guess most people are not paying attention to the turmoil that the Liberal Party is embroiled in, either.
    Harper isn’t ‘gaining ground’ on the Liberals. He’s ahead of them. And he believes at the end of an election campaign, he will be as far or further ahead.
    You can disagree with this analysis if you like, but I assure you there’s no need for spin on the Tory side. We’re actually confident in our chances. If you are too then I guess we’ll just have to see, won’t we?

  • Gayle

    ALW – it is apparent that it is Harper who wants the election – and if there was ever any doubt on that point surely the debate ended with his press conference yesterday.

    You also ignore the fact that between elections, most people really do not pay attention to what is going on in Ottawa. The PM gets to make all those cool announcements, and get all that coverage when he goes to the UN, while the opposition coverage is much lower.

    That Harper can have all those advantages, and still not gain any ground on the liberals, does not bode well for him.

    Spin it any way you like, the facts speak for themsevles.

  • ALW

    I certainly hope the wise-heads around Mr.Dion are doing the math the same way you guys are. 

    I could just as easily turn these numbers on their head and say: haven’t you guys been screaming for 18 months about how horrible this government is? And yet their numbers remain stable.  So what precisely will  you say during an election campaign that you haven’t already said, that is going to drive voters back into the Liberal camp?  Maybe Dion’s leadership?  Fly-by-night policy? 

    By all means, if you want an election  you’d best believe the Tories are ready for it.  If you are going to be turning to polls for solace, well, that’s what Martin’s people said before the ’06 campaign.  They thought Martin would be a better campaigner than Harper.  They were wrong.  And if Harper was better on the hustings than Martin, does anyone seriously suggestion Dion will be an improvement?

    And the point about the Bloc is exactly right.  That’s where Tory gains will come from.

  • kursk

    Polls conducted now, i do not put much stock in..lets see how Canadians feel ( especially after the first English debate..) when an election is called.

    If you could take a poll after that night, you will wish for the days that 30% was your high water mark..

  • I agree with Jeff, the Cons will pickup seats in Quebec.  Some of that looks to be offset by loses in the Maritimes, which leaves Ontario and British Columbia as key.

  • [quote comment=""]Except, Dan, that there is no more reason to believe in a Bloc meltdown than there is to believe in a Liberal meltdown.[/quote]

    There’s every reason to expect a BQ meltdown. The warning signs are there in the three by-election results, overshadowed by the Lib showing. The Cons will gain BQ seats in the general, it’s likely however those gains would be offset by loses elsewhere in the country, making it a coin-toss at this point.

  • Except, Dan, that there is no more reason to believe in a Bloc meltdown than there is to believe in a Liberal meltdown.

  • Dan

    If the 31% represents the lowest the Liberals can go, no matter how bad the news, and 33-36% represents a peak for Harper, I would interpret that as excellent news for Mr. Dion. An election now would be just as likely to result in a Liberal minority as a Conservative minority, particularly in the face of a Bloc meltdown in Quebec.

  • […] the bluster of some Blogging Tories, I see this as very similar to 1979. I say we call his bluff – if he wants […]

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