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Ontario TV debate did nothing to move poll #’s.

That’s not good news if you’re John Tory with less then 2 weeks to go during the campaign. The Liberals actually marginally increased their lead to 8 points over the PC’s. I did find the statement from the Ottawa Sun kind of interesting where they asserted these numbers indicate that McGuinty and the Liberals will be in a minority government situation. Greg Morrow hasn’t updated his election predictions yet, but this is what his predictor currently reads as of Sept 19th:

As you can see, a bare majority government for the Liberals. If on the other hand you go to Hill & Knowlton’s site and key in the SES %’s for the parties on their Ontario Election Predictor, you get the following results: Liberals 65, PC’s 30, NDP 12 – a minimal loss of 3 seats for the Liberals from last election.

It will be interesting to see who is correct… but whoever is right, it appears John Tory is going to need a major gaffe from Dalton McGuinty in order to turn his current stalled campaign into an election win.

UPDATE: As you can see, the application Greg made has automatically updated to include his Sept 25th projections.


3 comments to Ontario TV debate did nothing to move poll #’s.

  • I saw the debate and I figure hqd it been right up there in prime time – say nine o'clock – there would not likely have been a bigger audience.  It wasn't the time; it was the debaters.  Snooze!

  • Lord Kitchener's Own

    I was shocked at the 6:30 start time too.  I was actually on the phone to my sister telling her the debate was going to be on later when she said (she was flipping through the channels on the T.V. at the time) "it’s on now!"

    I didn’t believe her at first, because it was 6:50, and who would be dumb enough to schedule a provincial debate before 7:00???

  • Anyone know the election debate ratings?  The 6:30 start time was insane, "working families" were still working on supper.  I’m not surprised the debate had no impact, I’m willing to bet nobody saw it.  Global even had the audacity to cut away to commercial during the debate.

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