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Pete’s in peril

I’m not a Conservative pundit, but I’ll try and answer Stageleft’s question of them with this:

An online readers’ poll at the New Glasgow News in MacKay’s riding of Central Nova showed yesterday that 77 per cent of respondents said they would vote against their local MP next time if he fails to support the Atlantic accord the deal at the heart of the Ottawa-Nova Scotia dispute over the budget.

Sure, it’s unscientific, but polls in local newspapers are less likely to get “freeped” then the online polls you see in the main national newspapers. I think May’s campaign just got an enormous boost. I think she stands to benefit more so from disgruntled Tory voters moving to her from MacKay then the NDP candidate would, quite honestly. Throw in the Liberal vote, and you now have a realistic chance for the first elected Green member of Parliament (and the leader to boot) to appear after the next election.

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5 comments to Pete’s in peril

  • Wreck Smurfy

    Interesting info, but you do realise that 2 of the 5 provincial seats that make up Central Nova are held by the NDP (Pictou East and Pictou West) with confortable, established margins. In other words, if there is any party apart from the Cons, that has an established presence in Central Nova, it's the NDP.
    I'm not discounting May's chances, but I think she'll have a much steeper hill to climb than the NDP nominee.

  • She's already stated her support to keep the rail car factory open, rebuild Via service to Atlantic Canada, supports the Atlantic accord and wants a real cleanup for the tar ponds not a cement cap that won't work.

    So far that's 4 things MacKay can't say he supports, Unless of course Happer tells him to support them, at least until the next election is over.

  • May still has quite a task ahead of her to convince Central Nova that she is that moderate candidate… although I admit that Peter McKay has just given a leg up to any candidate in that riding.

    Still, from what I know about New Glasgow politics, May has an uphill battle. I can imagine a lot of Liberals feel betrayed by Dion’s move to not run a candidate in the riding – and understand, that many Liberals in communities like that have been Liberals all their life. This may create a backlash against May and the Greens.

    But if May runs on a strong platform for what she can do for This Region (as opposed to what Peter McKay has done for Ottawa),
    we may see an upset that I would have thought impossible a few weeks back.

  • Oh, she’ll stick around.. thats just you NDP’ers trying to make hay out of those comments she made.

    As for my statement.. I don’t have proof for it.. but it’s also not wishful thinking. It’s going on the supposition that the electorate that would normally support MacKay are mostly “Red Tories” or moderate Tories who would be closer to May’s ideological position on the issues then the NDP would be. I would assert not a lot of Conservative voters who get disgruntled with their MP or candidate of choice jump directly to the NDP. Most would normally go to the middle choice – that being the Liberals. Since there is no Liberal candidate, their alternative is May and the Greens, and my thesis is that is what will happen in Central Nova.

  • I think she stands to benefit more so from disgruntled Tory voters moving to her from MacKay then the NDP candidate would

    Care to offer any proof or is this just wishful thinking? Besides who knows if May will even stick around to run in the next election, given she is exhausted from her duties as it is?

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