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New SES Poll: Tories drop into 2nd place (er.. dead heat)

Sorry, my Liberal bias showed through there with that title. In an SES poll released tonight, the trend continues here as with other recent polls of Conservative support faltering in the past month and the Cons. and Libs. basically in a tie. Nik Nanos comments:

The latest SES Research poll completed May 1st shows a drop in Conservative support and an increase in support for the Green Party. Nationally, the Liberals registered the support of 33% of decided voters followed by the Conservatives at 32%, the NDP at 17%, the Green Party at 10% and the BQ at 9%. One of the major shifts has occurred in Quebec with the Liberals picking up nine points and the Conservatives dropping 11 points.

Nik comments that this is the first time in the history of SES tracking that the Greens have gotten into double-digits. It appears from the national poll that they picked it up mostly from the Conservatives, which if you’re a Liberal, isn’t a bad thing either.

I still maintain that Harper and the Conservatives are vulnerable on a bevy of issues and that going now for an election is better then allowing Harper to adjourn the House and take an extended vacation, as some have suggested he is going to do. My feeling is he will be doing so in order to try and take away the daily focus on the Afghanistan issue and the much criticized Green Plan II, in the hopes Canadians will forget it over the summer. This would allow the Conservatives to come up with a new agenda of ideas – something they’ve apparently run out of now, because they were already probably expecting to be in an election campaign earlier this spring right after the Budget before the polling #’s fell on them.

I would argue not to allow that to happen. I would prefer to go at them now and take my chances before they can re-group.

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3 comments to New SES Poll: Tories drop into 2nd place (er.. dead heat)

  • I think it is clear now any post budget bounce they got is long gone. The only concern here is our numbers haven’t risen that much, but certainly their falling numbers definitely show they bothced the Afghanistan and environment file. I think the Afghanistan issue may just be the issue that leads to their defeat as getting bogged down in an unpopular war rarely helps a party. If the Tories were really serious about improving their numbers, they would pull out of Afghanistan in which case I think their numbers would be much better, but as Harper has always said he would rather lose over Afghanistan than compromise and that just may happen.

  • knb

    Lol, good title.

    I tend to agree that there are a lot of issues right now that the con’s are vulnerable on and frankly I don’t really want to give them time to re-group. I’m just not convinced that the Lib’s are ready to go.

    I can’t think of what ideas they may come up with, can you? Spending is out of control, they are done on environment and unless they totally somersault on the daycare thing I’m not sure where they could go. Healthcare is a bust for them, economy a non-starter with Flaherty messing up right now, more law and order?

  • […] this government right now and a break will give them a chance to regroup. Scott over at Diatribes appears to agree this might be the new Con game plan.  If they get another summer to do absolutely nothing on the […]

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