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DemocraticSPACE.com: May has a good shot of winning Central Nova

There’s been a few pooh-poohing May’s chances of winning McKay’s seat, but Greg Morrow of DemocraticSPACE.com – who’s well respected for his polling analysis – has a post explaining that yes, it is very conceivable May can win.

Want to know how he comes to that conclusion? Read here.

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4 comments to DemocraticSPACE.com: May has a good shot of winning Central Nova

  • Ted

    Scott:

    I agree with you about the many reasons some Liberal bloggers are supporting this. I don’t mean to insult them. But the wholehearted embracing of this both in principle and as strategy is very disappointing. This may – I repeat may because I don’t think it is on balance good for them but maybe – be good for the Green Party and therefore maybe for environmentalism. But it isn’t for the Liberal Party and therefore not good for all of the other things the Liberal Party is supposed to stand for.

    Odd sort of “renewal” if you ask me.

  • Come on Ted, It’s a small price to pay for the selling out of a national institution…

  • Ted:

    With regards to your one comment:

    Disaffected Liberal Party members and workers in Central Nova arent all 11 000 voters who voted Liberal in the past election for the 3rd place candidate. You make a big assumption that all of them are so partisan Liberal that they will stay at home, or take the hint that Dion want May to win.

    And, I also think you dont give a lot of your Liblogging community a lot of credit for supporting this move. Some might be doing it out of loyalty.. but as I told you at your site.. I would have wholeheartedly endorsed this move pre-Dec 12th/06… and doing so now doesnt make me someone drinking the Dion Liberal Kool-Aid.

  • Ted

    As I commented over at democraticSPACE, about whom I agree with you as an analyst:

    Greg:

    I appreciate your thoughtful analysis more than you know. I think a lot of Liberals WANT this to be a good deal so badly they are willing to just assume and predict McKay will be defeated because of the May-Dion deal or at least have a harder time. You, on the other hand, have done your usual job of actually spending the time to analyze the real possibilities, probabilities and improbabilities.

    You are usually more accurate than the paid political pundits so yours is the first post I’ve read that gave me a moment of pause. So out of respect for your good analysis, I will respond with some of my own.

    But there are some assumptions you make which are critical to your conclusion which I don’t think can be supported.

    1. Direct comparisons of performances across different ridings are extremely inexact, perhaps particularly in this case. For one, you had a strong Liberal Party riding with an incumbent that replaced that incumbent with another Liberal so regardless of how strong the opposition McKay has that and the others, especially the Liberals, in Central Nova and especially the Greens, do not. London is 2 hours from Toronto and a ton of Green volunteer support came from commuters.

    2. You said “A warm relationship between Dion and May suggests that a good number of Liberals in Central Nova will probably be comfortable voting for May. Letís say 3/4 do” and “And since there is no Liberal candidate, we can expect most of that drop to benefit the Greens”. I don’t think there is any evidence that this will be the case. At all. And possibly just the opposite. Dion made this decision without any consultation with the local riding association or the Nova Scotia Liberal caucus. They were extremely upset about the decision. Some will go NDP and some CPC, but most will stay home I suspect. There are a lot of Liberals who were already treading the line between NDP or CPC. The Liberals cannot hand the vote over to the Greens in nearly as strong numbers as you suggest.

    3. At the same time, the traditional Green vote is more of a protest vote, formed because of the view that the traditional parties were defective including the prior Liberal government, and suddenly their leader is endorsing the Liberal Party. What effect does this have on their enthusiasm?

    4. You don’t seem to have factored in the differences between a by-election, when the local candidates and races get a lot of daily media attention, and a general election when the federal leaders of the national party do. The CPC will be running national ad campaigns as well as local ad campaigns from which McKay will benefit. There will be a lot more attention paid.

    5. You have not factored into your analysis incumbency, not just of McKay but of government. McKay is not just an opposition MP this time but a cabinet minister who has brought lots of goodies home to Nova Scotia. He is a Central Novan and Nova Scotian with an important seat at the cabinet. Will Central Nova residents easily give up that representation? Certainly some or many will, but most won’t.

    One factor you also didn’t consider which supports your claim is that Alexa McDonough may be stepping down and so the new candidate will be a virtual unknown in all likelihood. Even if she doesn’t, she’s already lost once to McKay and voters tend to not like winners who turn into losers which would help May (and a little bit McKay too).

    The CPC vote won’t shrink though and I think that is the key. There is a deep anger against Harper from people who would never have voted for him in the first place, but not with other Canadians. With other Canadians, some like him, some don’t, most are fairly indifferent. So there is as much if not more space for him to grow or keep constant.

    Wish it weren’t so, but I don’t see how the Greens (1%) plus the Liberals (24%) can beat the Conservatives (40%).

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