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Invent something to worry about if you cant find a good reason to do so.

So, the consensus seems to be most people on the Liberal side of the fence are cheered by the SES polling #’s this past weekend that show close #’s within the Margin Of Error.

Of course, I’ve learned that Liberals seem to not be satisfied with finding better news then expected, and must try to find something to fret and worry over, such as the fact Dion’s rating as who would make the best PM are still only in the teens.

I find this particular survey to be overrated, and I think people using these as some indicator as to how parties will do give it far too much weight. Everyone seems to forget how badly Harper trailed in this category prior to the 2006 election campaign… didn’t hurt him at all did it?

The fact of the matter is, no matter what the general party polls do, the perception of a leader -good OR bad – isnt going to change at all till the election campaign starts. So, I think obsessing over this particular poll needs to be toned down a bit.


6 comments to Invent something to worry about if you cant find a good reason to do so.

  • ALW

    You’re right to point out Harper trailed badly before the election in the best PM category – but during the election, that number was the foreshadow of party numbers to come. So really, you’re banking entirely on Dion being able to turn it around during an election. Which of course, is possible. But do you want to go into an election trailing in all regions, amongst both men and women, and all age groups, by a 2:1 margin, in that category? Probably not.

  • Scott

    you cant use the same respondents who declared it a stalemate yesterday, and then say this means nothing.

    I think Weston is asking the questions many Liberals are afraid to ask.

    I am all for turning Dion’s image around in Quebec, at 10% I am confident we have hit rock bottom.

    Also, I believe this poll shows the resilience of the Liberal voter, who is showing that no matter what Harper does to buy their vote, they hold their ground. In an election where will be outspend and out-covered by the media…it may mean Harper’s majority will be ALOT harder to get.

  • Ted

    I’ve seen maybe one or two posts on this. Hardly a big wave of negativism and hardly obsessing. Are we already starting to eat our own? That’s never a good sign.

    I think polling on perceptions of leaders and on specific issues more revealing than polling on voters’ ballot box intentions outside of a writ period. Voters will park their vote until they start focusing on the eleciton issues and policies but they form their general opinions about a leader in advance.

    That’s not at all to say things can’t change and change quickly. But perceptions of a leadership candidate are a “leader” on how people will vote, i.e. if the leadership perceptions are low, then they aren’t going to be voting for you. And to rely on an election to change that will be waiting too late, i.e. Harper’s personal numbers soared and Martin’s plummetted just before and as the election got underway. Anything Martin did to correct that after the fact was too late.

    The truly worrying thing about this poll is not that Dion rates so miserably, but that he continues to rate so miserably AND Harper continues to rate very well after (a) a few leadership polls now (b) a cross country tour and more focus on Dion and (c) all of the nasty, petty partisanship moves by Harper.

    Right now, the media are behind Harper and not helping Dion. He has to work doubly hard to get around their conventional wisdom “story”.

  • The big question is, how do we get the people of Canada to get to know Dion, befoe it is too late ?

  • It shouldn’t be overrated Scott but it shouldn’t be ignored either. I’m pleased with the tight horserace numbers in the SES poll too, but I would like us to actually start to move ahead at some point too. We’ve been stalled in party support, and I think the low popularity number for Dion may be part of the reason why. It’s not the only reason, but to ignore any piece of the puzzle would be foolhardy, IMO.

  • harper also had something else…

    Gomery and an RCMP investigation mid-election. Not to mention 13 years of Liberal Government.

    the fact that the party continues to do well (within MOE of the CPC) with these leadership numbers makes one ponder…

    Is Weston right….are we doing well in spite of Dion…

    If this pans out during the election, I hope our response is not “This is unfair”

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