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Polls and more polls – Tory lead evaporates, PQ up in Quebec.

A couple of polls for you to digest this AM. One sent in by reader Joseph from Ipso-Reid mentioned in the National Post. I just love the spin on this one – the NP and Ipsos is proclaiming a well received budget means a Conservative majority government is virtually assured – yet when you read the #’s after all the spin, you find the Conservative lead that had grown has virtually evaporated into a dead heat:

Bricker said with the Conservatives at 36 per cent in national support in the latest poll..the Liberals hold 34 per cent in the same survey…..The poll..also showed the NDP at 12 per cent in national support, the Greens at eight per cent and the Bloc Quebecois at nine per cent.

See what happens when we (as in the Liberals) actually announce specific policies and our platform? You give voters a reason to actually support us. I’m not saying release the whole platform before an election.. but I think it was smart to talk about 2 key issues (law and order and the environment) to show people what we propose, rather then always defending ourselves or criticizing the other guys for what they propose or don’t propose.

The other one is from Strategic Council on the Quebec provincial election, and surprisingly, for the first time in the campaign, the PQ has taken a statistical lead:

The poll indicates that if the election were held today, the Parti Québécois would take 32 per cent of the vote, the Liberals 30 per cent and the ADQ 26 per cent. The Green Party would receive 7 per cent and the newly formed left-wing Quebec Solidaire party 5 per cent.

Again, as with Leger and CROP, this poll finds Dumont and the ADQ have momentum:

The ADQ has the most second-choice support, according to the poll, an indication that it still has room to grow…When asked if they would shift their support away from Mario Dumont and the ADQ if they thought the party might actually win, a surprising 79 per cent said no. This is the first indication that voters are discarding apprehensions about the ADQ’s inexperienced candidates..Nearly half of those surveyed said that the ADQ was gaining the most momentum. The poll was taken after the leaders’ debate, which 32 per cent felt Mr. Dumont won, compared with 27 per cent for PQ Leader André Boisclair and 19 per cent for Liberal Leader Jean Charest.

It appears that Charest is going to need a massive influx of “fiscal imbalance” money in the Harper budget to save him, and the ability to persuade Quebecers he was the result of it… and hope they don’t take it as Harper politically intervening to save an ally.

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2 comments to Polls and more polls – Tory lead evaporates, PQ up in Quebec.

  • wilson61

    The main message from the poll:
    …The poll found the Conservative government’s second budget could convince one-third of Liberal voters, about one-quarter of NDP supporters, three in 10 Green party voters and 15 per cent of Bloc Quebecois supporters to switch their choice to the Conservatives in the next election because of what’s delivered in the budget.

    Since the Liberals hold 34 per cent in the same survey, up two points from the beginning of the month, attracting one-third of their vote with the budget would give the Tories 46 per cent and a landslide victory.

  • Federally, everyone is just one moderately bad slip from giving someone else the win. Way… too close…

    Dion has an advantage as he still not branded, despite the CPC attempts to do so.

    Also, inter-party copperation between the Greens and Liberals could disturb the vote this time in a way we haven’t seen yet.

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