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SES Poll: How comfortable are you with a majority Harper/Conservative Government?

I was alerted to this poll by a loyal reader (heh.. well, I’m presuming he is), and I found it interesting. This poll, conducted by everyone’s favourite pollster SES Research, asked Canadians based on what they know about the Tories, how comfortable or uncomfortable they’d be with a Harper Conservative Majority Government. It was released on Feb 28/07.

The results are here. The bottom line is that Canadians are about as comfortable now as they were in August 2006. Regionally, the number of Atlantic Canada and Ontario folks who would be comfortable with the idea has fallen while the number in Quebec and the “West” has risen.

Does that mean anything? I don’t know.. but since we’re all poll-obsessed around the blogosphere and every new poll sends each side into a panic or exhilaration depending on the poll #’s, I figured I might as well chime in with this poll. Thanks to the reader who sent it in to me.


6 comments to SES Poll: How comfortable are you with a majority Harper/Conservative Government?

  • Joseph

    Hey, know this is late; but, yeah, I’m a loyal reader ; ). I tend to gravitate to a few blogs for a sense of things (like yours, which I find well thought out and respectful even when you disagree with folks). When in a fighting mood, I visit others.

    But it all helps me understand.

    Later Guy.

  • Timothy Webster,

    Really great post. In fact, I liked it so much, I put it up on my own blog. I hope you don’t mind.

  • Lord Kitchener's Own

    Steve V.

    I believe with these types of polls the margin of error is ALWAYS smaller for the national numbers than for the regional numbers. I’m not a pollster, so I don’t understand the technicalities, but basically I think it’s all about sample size. A sample size of 500 people from Ontario might not be that accurate a reflection of the opinions of Ontarians as a whole. But 500 from Ontario, plus 500 from Quebec, plus 500 from Atlantic Canada, plus 500 from “the West” gives a sample size for the country of 2000 people, which is not so bad. So the regional numbers would be considered less accurate than the national numbers, and would vary from region to region based on the sample size.

    Now, it may seem that the numbers should be similar, because one is extrapolating up from 500 to 12 million people (for Ontario) and from 2000 to over 30 million people for Canada as a whole, but I don’t think it works quite that way, since the sample sizes are small enough in an absolute sense (for the regions) that they aren’t that accurate, even though they are representative of a smaller total population.

    So, for example, say you had 12 people evenly divided in three different rooms, and sampled 1 person in each room. What the 3 people say is a better indication of what all 12 people think than what each single person you sampled said is an indication of what the 4 people in that specific room think. Even though in both cases you’re surveying 1 out of 4 people, because 3 is a better absolute sample size than 1, the overall numbers have a somewhat lower margin of error than the room-specific numbers. At least, I think that’s how it works (very simplistically stated).

  • Timothy Webster

    I am not comfortable with a Conservative majority because,
    1)The conservatives want to take away the independence of the judiciary
    2)The conservatives support unnecessary terror laws that are not accordance with a fair judicial process and unnecessary take away basic legal rights,
    3)The conservatives don’t have a economic plan, or environmental plan. Their tax plan is to make taxes more complex for Canadians without benefit,
    4)The conservatives fall to realize that more harm than good will result from their lack of a plan to rebuild Afghanistan.
    5)Harper’s plan is to blame someone else and never apologise for mistakes.

    The Conservatives idea of cleaning up government is not dealing with problems as the Liberals did, but hiding scandals.

    The biggest reason I don’t want a majority is Harper treats me as thought I am retarded and he believes
    I don’t know basic economics, and don’t see that their tax polices are overly complex and costly,
    I don’t care about my basic legal rights and freedoms,
    I don’t care about the environment, or damage we do to it.

    Harper believes the way to deal with problems is to blame others and never accept responsibility or apologise for mistakes.

    Why do we as Canadians like Harper? Because Harper won’t deal with any media that won’t tell his story the way he wants it told. Denial is like sticking your head in the sand, you need a good kick in the ass. And the business media is a business not a public service to insure we are well informed. Being well informed is a personal responsibility of each and every one of us.

  • I don’t know, but SES’s methodology seems to work, whatever they are using.. so I’m not one to question it till I see something otherwise that proves their data wrong.

    As I said.. I dont know what it means and its interesting to look at as a point in time reference.

    I will definitely be interested in the next SES national poll, after the hysteria the Decima poll produced today.

  • Interesting results. Im curious about the margin of error in this poll. It says it is 3.1%, but all the regional breakdowns are well above that (5-10%). All the regions are represented, so how can the overall Canada numbers have a low margin, when the data collected from the regions is high?

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