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SES Poll shows literal dead heat

We’ve had a lot of debate at times who the best pollster is in Canada. The little polling firm known as SES got a lot of fans from all sides of the ideological aisle for seemingly being the polling company to be the closest gauge to what actually happened in the past couple of federal elections – particularly last year’s. Greg Staples of Political Staples and of STI Media (where you find all the Blogger’s Hotstove podcasts) and I actually agree that when all the different polling companies results all come out at the same time, we look for the SES one. I was hoping they’d release something around now, since some Blogging Tories are as predicted throwing the latest Leger poll around claiming it shows the attack ads are working (they had the Conservatives up by 7), and it would be nice to spot trends here, if there indeed is one.

They’ve just released their latest poll, and they have the numbers as being a virtual tie as compared to their last poll:

Liberals33% (+1 from Nov 9)
Conservatives33% (-1)
NDP17% (+1)
BQ10% (-3)
Greens7% (+2)

There are interesting regional number breakdowns in this poll. The Liberals are down in Ontario but none of that loss is going to the Conservatives – its going to the Greens and NDP (Nik Nanos – President of SES – suggests possibly the attack ads are driving lefty voters to those 2 parties). Interestingly enough however, Liberal numbers have spiked in the Maritimes with the Conservatives in a virtual free-fall there, while the Tories have also slumped out West (and without a province breakdown, I’ll continue to assert it’s the Wheat Board position the Tories hold that’s causing them this slide). In the meanwhile, the BQ has slid in Quebec, with a fair bit of that going to the Tories, though the Liberals gained as well.

Bottom line is we’d still have a minority parliament if an election is called.. just a matter of which two of the Liberals or Conservatives would have the more seats.


11 comments to SES Poll shows literal dead heat

  • knb

    slg, do you have a link to that poll? I can’t seem to find it.

  • Thats a pretty big assumption over 1 poll Aaron about Ontarions.

    Regardless, if Harper is so confident.. call an election over the Environment and Kyoto.

  • If the CPC is in a “free-fall” in Atlantic Canada, does that also mean that the Liberals are in a free-fall in Ontario? Not a bad trade, I’d say. Together with Leger’s finding of a the LPC trailing Harper by 7 points in Ontario, I think it’s becoming clear that Ontarians are losing patience for the non-leader Dion (nor do Holland’s attempts to beef up liberal support in Ontario by stoking regional divisions appear to be working).

  • slg

    Forgot to mention – the latest Angus Reid poll asking who the favourite would be for PM – Dion is 1 point ahead of Harper. Dion lost 1 point only since the negative ads.

    Interesting –

  • slg


    What is constitent is the BLOC slipping on a regular basis. I do want Elizabeth May to get a seat in the House – I think she could really tear at Harper.

    Also, the “grown up” mutual respect although different views between May and Dion sets an example of what “should” be in politics.

    We need to get the neo-con children out of there – they are embarrassing.

  • Bailey

    Oh. Here’s the article that I mentioned above from The Chronicle Herald.

  • Bailey

    It’s not surprising that the Conservatives are slumping in the East Coast. They really haven’t focused all that much attention to that area.

    Back around the end of January, the Chronicle Herald had an article where they mentioned that many professors/pundits/political watchers couldn’t come up with anything that benefitted the region. The only one thing that stood out was the saving of the ferry between Digby and Saint John in the Bay of Fundy. But even that was only a temporary measure if I remember.

    Recently they announced some funding for the ferry between Newfoundland and Nova Scotia but it wasn’t much. Most of the papers in the Newfoundland ran negative stories on that as the funding was low.

    Outside of their support for Afghanistan, which the East Coast does support because their are a large number of military families that live in the area and communities, there is much for the government to run on out there. The Sydney Tar Ponds clean up was a nice announcement but it was really following up on a previous Liberal announcement. Same with many of the fisheries related announcements, many of them were previously announced by the Liberals – just rebranded.

    I guess the biggest thing they did was bring Secretary Rice to Nova Scotia for a meeting with Peter McKay for the anniversary of 9/11. That’s important but it’s not directly affecting the lives of everyday Atlantic Canadians.

  • janfromthebruce

    So the libs, need to quit trying to wipe out the ndp cause we all want progressive policies. And sure looks like you need us just like we need you.

  • Man. Man.

    Anybody who thinks Canadian politics is boring is crazy.

  • Joffre:

    No Green Party pickups according to that forecaster eh?

    I’m not a very good stats person, and I’m not sure I understand their formula – other then their base is the 2006 election results. How did you plug in certain numbers to reach a sum total of 1.000 in each column in order to reflect this latest poll over there?

  • Joffré

    Whenever there’s a poll, I amuse myself by plugging it into this election forecaster:
    It applies a uniform swing from election night to the results you plug in. This poll, frustratingly enough, would give the Conservatives and Bloc a total of 154 (assuming André Arthur’s seat doesn’t go NDP) and the NDP and Liberals a total of 154.
    The liberals would have 127 seats, the Cons would have 104.

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