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Tories have failed to pick up momentum from their Green epiphany: poll

BigCityLib points to a new Ipsos-Reid Poll released today that shows the Liberals maintain a narrow 4 point lead nationally.
A couple of thoughts on this poll: It would appear to me that so far, the Conservatives sudden desire to show how environmentally friendly and “green” they are haven’t impressed the Canadian public much. It also appears that the hostile stance taken by the Tories against the Wheat Board as well as the proposed fiscal imbalance solution has really caused them (in this particular poll) to take a nosedive in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, as the Liberals lead by 8 points there.

Another observation; the Tories may be further behind nationally due to skewed Alberta numbers, as they have a whopping 70% preference of the electorate there, while the Liberals lead in every other region. Take Alberta out of the equation, where the other parties never have run strong anyhow, and you end up with a strong Liberal minority government with these current numbers.

I dont know however that these are good enough to convince anyone to want a spring election, particularly in the NDP, whose support has fallen to 13% in this poll. And of course, this is only one poll.. and there are a gazillion polling companies in Canada it seems, which all will have varying results.


9 comments to Tories have failed to pick up momentum from their Green epiphany: poll

  • Well of course you’d point that out Paul; you’re the one at Prog BLog who was trying to claim based on one poll from one polling firm that Dion had lost momentum; so I guess you’re now accusing me of doing the same thing.

    I’m glad we apparently agree however that one poll from one polling company does not a trend make.

  • I just wanted to point out that this poll appears to be an anomaly based on other recent polls. Most recent polls don’t show this much of a lead for the Liberals (including the poll released just before this one as well as the poll released the day after this one). I’ve documented that here and here using methodologically sound rolling-five poll average that the Liberals and the Conservatives are within the MOE of each other.

  • [quote comment=”991″]By population, the West is short seats, maybe PMSH will correct that before the next election…[/quote]
    Well, WilsonFeller, Harper’s base is rural Canadee. Rural ridin’s got fewer Canajuns livin’ in ’em as big city ridin’s. They still got one MP, though. That means us rural fellers — an’ I am one — got a bigger say in gummint than the city folks. This uneven distribution means our votes count more than Trawna voters’ votes. That ain’t right, sez I. If the West is short o’ seats based on One Canajun, One Vote, an’ Pryminister Harper fixes it, like yer sayin’, he’s gonna hafta fix the rural-urban disproportionality, too.

    I don’t reckon it’s in Harper’s interest t’ even things up an’ take away voting power from country folks when they’re the ones votin’ CPC. Harper’s fooled me more’n once, though. I never figgered he’d buy inta climate change an’ do a 180 on ol’ Mother Earth an’ turn inta a treehugger, either, but lookit him now.


  • wilson61

    By population, the West is short seats, maybe PMSH will correct that before the next election…

  • Dinosaur said:
    [quote comment=”988″]Taking Alberta out of the numbers is no more valid than removing Toronto from the numbers.[/quote]

    Sure it is – it doesnt matter whether the Tories get 50, 60, or 70% in Alberta, they arent going to gain any more seats then they have now. But with such a high percentage of support there, it skews the national numbers and gives them a higher national number then they would have. It also skews what the approximate seats won in the Parliament would be. So its a very valid point.

    If Toronto was running 60% Liberal or higher, I’d say the same about taking that region out.

  • Dionosaur

    Taking Alberta out of the numbers is no more valid than removing Toronto from the numbers.

  • Whooee! GarhaneFeller, it ain’t a case o’ ‘could they be that stoopid?’. It’s a case o’ how stoopid the voters is. If the HarpoonTossers can fool enuff Canajuns inta thinkin’ they’re as strong as the Grits on Mother Earth issues — but they’re better at gettin’ things done an’ they ain’t been caught with their hand in the cookie jar — that might be enuff t’ get ’em their majority.

    Voters think they gotta either vote Liberal or Conservative on accounta it’s only one o’ them bigass parties who’s gonna win. When they see 8%-11% goin’ t’ Earth Mother Lizzie May, they wanna win them votes. Nobuddy’s gonna win over Green Party voters with watered down rehashes or with undiluted policies that never get enacted.

    Greg Weston has a piece in today’s Sun where he talks ’bout the Cons mediocre showin’ in the ‘pinion polls. Worth a read, sez I.


  • garhane

    Never mind polls, we have a question of urgency on climate policy and the Cons are still behaving like they do not believe the story line at all. How else can one explain this weird putting forward, severely watered down, items set up by the Libs several years ago. It is just a bunch of small good things, not united in any over all plan, badly cut down in scale and amount, and obviously tracking in the ruts of what was already done by the Libs. Can they possibly be that stupid, can we, what are they about.

  • Whooee! ScottFeller, I ain’t about t’ take Alberty outta the equation. Why should I? Don’t their votes matter? Are they gonna separate from Canadee before the next election?

    Harper ain’t foolin’ too many Canajuns with his green suit. He is pissin’ off plenty o’ westerners, thoough. Between leavin’ the climate change deniers lookin’ leaderless, breakin’ the income trust promise an’ costin’ Sasky $800 million in equalization, he’s doin’ his best t’ chop off the hand that feeds him. Pit Bull Boy’s even startin’ t’ question the bigass tax breaks the Feds been dolin’ out t’ the oil an’ gas outfits. They’re talkin’ ’bout puttin’ tuff emissions regulations on the oilpatch.

    Harpoon’s green turnaround is new. Canajuns ain’t had time t’ figger out if he’s fer real or if he’s really doin’ enuff t’ save ol’ Mother Earth. I reckon sum folks’ll be fooled an’ his pollin’ numbers’ll rise a little in the East. At the selfsame time, I reckon he’s gonna lose sum hard-right support out West.


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