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Ontario Election Post-Mortem. ON Election 2018=Fed Election 2011

Some thoughts/observations on last night’s result;

The NDP had momentum 2 weeks ago, but obviously lost it at the end, as their final percentage of votes was 3-5% lower then most final polls had predicted. (I believe Ekos and Mainstreet were the closest in their final polling of NDP numbers.). The end result reminded me of the Federal Election in 2011, where Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff floundered, the NDP of Jack Layton then for a brief time looked like big challengers, only to fade down the stretch.

What happened?

I think that some of the NDP’s candidates being highlighted for radical positions did not help, (while Ford’s candidates problems didn’t […]

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Ontario Debate Aftermath #voteon

My initial (biased) impressions of the debate are:

– As someone who is supporting the OLP, I’d have much preferred if Wynne had started stronger, but the first two topics were always going to be the tough ones, and I’m not sure whether I’d have done much better. I did think she recovered after that and “held the line” as it were. I don’t think she was struck with any fatal blow per se. I know on social media some people were commenting on Premier Wynne’s hand movements, but I’ve always found Ms. Wynne to be a demonstrative person; she was like that at the OLP leadership convention as well. […]

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Your #voteon narrative for today: not good for opposition parties.

Your one narrative that is going around the media and which Premier Wynne has decided to target extensively today: Tim Hudak’s bungled million jobs plan numbers:

..Based on a backgrounder distributed by the Progressive Conservatives to journalists, but not posted on their website, it is clear that the planners confused person-years of employment with permanent jobs. This confusion led them to vastly overestimate the effect of their proposed job-creating measures. The result was that the half million jobs the Progressive Conservatives were promising to create with their plan (base-case economic growth was expected to provide the other half-million jobs) was really only about 75,000 (ST: my highlight) —fewer than […]

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Whither the Ontario NDP’s social conscience?

I’ve been observing this Ontario campaign with some curiosity as to why the Ontario Liberals decided they were going to target Andrea Horwath and the Ontario NDP first in the (pre)-camapaign over them failing to support their rather progressive budget, rather then go after Tim Hudak’s far-right stances/policies, which seemed to be a more obvious thing to attack. I think its now apparent why: there are a lot of progressive traditional voters of the NDP that are disgruntled by her tack to the centre, illustrated very well by Carol Goar:

Ontario’s churches, charities, social activists and anti-poverty advocates issued a statement in the second week of the provincial election campaign, […]

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Ontario NDP gets ‘competing’ advice on Ontario Budget

Ontario NDP Leader Andrea Horwath has a decision to make soon on whether or not to support the Ontario Liberal government’s budget; failure to support it (or at least an actual vote against versus an abstain) plunges the province back into an election campaign.

She’s been given competing advice on what to do: on the one hand, you’ve got Toronto Mayor Rob Ford urging his ideological foes to oppose the Budget and go back to an election campaign, because according to Ford, that’s what taxpayers want.

An opinion poll just released today, however, would show that unsurprisingly, Rob Ford is probably wrong about his claim:

About half of Ontarians want […]

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